For almost a decade, Yevgeny Prigozhin was engaged in building the Wagner paramilitary group.
The mercenary organization became a key player in Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s troops helped spread Russian influence around the globe, supporting Vladimir Putin’s allies in Africa and Syria.
With the reports of his death, a tidal wave of speculation has been generated about the future of the group.
Western security officials are wondering who will take his place and what will happen to the mercenaries who were loyal to him.
Who will now lead Wagner?
Dr. Joana de Deus Pereira, a research associate at the United Royal Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC’s World Tonight program that Prigozhin’s alleged death would likely lead to “some redistribution of the group.”
But he said that overall Wagner’s operations are likely to continue in the same way they did under Prigozhin’s leadership.
“The organization will persist into the future, probably under another name, but it has already shown its ability to adapt and change,” he said.
“We have to see Wagner not as one man but as an ecosystem, a hydra with many, many heads and many interests in Africa.”
Ruslan Trad, a security analyst at the Atlantic Council center, agrees. He told the BBC that Prigozhin’s death would surely open the way for someone with connections to Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.
But he suggested that the main challenge for Putin will be finding someone with pockets deep enough to finance paramilitary operations, but who does not pose a direct challenge to his regime.
“They will try to find a new financier because Prigozhin was the main person with money there,” Trad said.
“I think it will be difficult to find a new funder because [Wagner] He has good commanders, but money is important. Maybe someone in Putin’s close circle.”
Benoît Bringer, a journalist who analyzed the rise of the paramilitary group in the documentary The Rise of Wagner, told the BBC that one of the main contenders is GRU General Andrey Averyanov.
“It is likely that Putin will need time to organize the transition, which would explain why it took him two months to get rid of Prigozhin,” he added.
Rusi’s Emily Ferris said Moscow “will surely have learned its lesson that personalities like Prigozhin with their own ambitions are uncertainty,” adding that “any new leader [de Wagner] it will surely be handpicked by the Kremlin.”
What will happen to Wagner’s troops in Belarus and Ukraine?
For much of the past year, Wagner was the most effective fighting force in Ukraine, his troops responsible for taking the eastern cities of Soledar and Bakhmut.
But for Ferris, Prigozhin’s death is unlikely to have a serious impact on the course of the war.
“Wagner’s troops have been out of action since the rebellion [de junio] and they are either stationed in Belarus, or have been reabsorbed by the Defense Ministry, so the immediate impact on the Ukraine war, where Russian forces continue to hold off the Ukrainian counter-offensive, will be minimal for now,” he said.
He added that it seems unlikely that Wagner’s troops will return to the battlefield in Ukraine, at least in the short term.
There are said to be at least 8,000 Wagner fighters stationed in camps in Belarus, who followed Prigozhin there after his failed June coup.
Meanwhile, satellite images analyzed by BBC Verify show that several of the tents at Wagner’s main camp in Osipovichi, southeast of the Belarusian capital Minsk, are being dismantled. Some have been withdrawn either partially or totally.
The photos were taken by the American company Planet Labs. It is not clear when exactly the work began and if the occupants of the tents are elsewhere in Belarus or have left for another country.
The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty media group reported on Thursday that 101 of the 273 tents on the field had been removed.
Belarus, a key Russian ally in the invasion of Ukraine, has not commented on the matter so far.
However, the future of Wagner’s soldiers is uncertain, with some social media reports suggesting that several members of the group had made explicit threats against Putin for what they argue was his role in Prigozhin’s death.
Can the Wagner forces in Africa and Syria continue to fight?
Nor is the future of the Wagner troops abroad clear. The group has become a key pillar of Russian foreign policy, aiding governments such as Syria, Mali, the Central African Republic and Libya with its forces in exchange for lucrative mining titles.
It is believed that in recent days, Prigozhin was present in West Africa. Some Western analysts have expressed fears that the group was looking to expand its reach to other countries including Niger, where a coup just took place.
Some had speculated that the beheading of the group’s leadership might cause Russia to reassess its attempts to seek influence in the region, but many experts believe decentralized command on the mainland could allow it to maintain operations undisturbed after Prigozhin’s death. .
After the June riot, it was reported that Russian authorities traveled to Libya and met with Khalifa Haftar, the renegade general who is taking on the UN-backed government in Tripoli, and assured him of the Wagner group’s continued support, regardless of destination. from Prigozhin.
Trad told the BBC that he believed Wagner was so integrated into the defense infrastructure of African countries that his operations would not be affected by Prigozhin’s death.
“Commanders stationed in Syria, in the Central African Republic or Mali already have models in place and have freedom of action,” he said.
“Local commanders are not impacted because the operations are operationally separate, they have different resources for this, and even now they are hiring for the Syrian and African operations.”
He further assured that the group’s estranged relationship with Russian intelligence would continue to be an invaluable tool for Moscow, allowing it to operate in a “grey area” where it can pursue Russian interests, but in which authorities can deny involvement.
Bringer told the BBC that Wagner was “essential in Africa” in terms of promoting Russian interests. “The structure is certainly going to continue to exist there, perhaps not under the Wagner name, but with a new leader loyal to the Kremlin,” he said.
Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Syrian program, said that even after the failed Prigozhin uprising in Russia, Wagner’s commanders abroad largely escaped reprisals from the Kremlin to avoid “weakening the general position of Moscow”.
But he said other mercenary companies were increasingly rivaling Wagner in Syria. After the June riot, Mardasov said a number of Wagner members received an offer to transfer to a rival company called PMC Redut.
“Redut has been working in Syria alongside Wagner for a long time,” Marasov told the BBC. “The military is betting on Redut in Syria, but they were afraid to take quick steps.”
Will Wagner quickly fade from memory?
In the medium term, it seems unlikely that Wagner’s operations will be significantly impacted by the death of his benefactor. But in the longer term, Wagner’s operations look set to become something new, says Rusi’s Emily Ferris.
“Most likely, Wagner will split in two, with the other leadershipless groups in Belarus disbanding, and the other foreign faction becoming something that can be a tool of Russian foreign policy,” he told the BBC.
Referring to Prigozhin’s legacy, Bringer told the BBC that Wagner has “shown to the Kremlin how a private shadow army, capable of operating completely outside the law, could be useful in their hybrid wars, just as than to gain influence abroad.”
“The Wagner name may go away, but not the mercenaries on the ground or the methods he created.”
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c5146e8qz6go, IMPORTING DATE: 2023-08-25 16:00:07
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