Dina Mahmoud (London)
In light of the escalation of unrest in the Sahel region of West Africa, Western analytical circles have intensified their warnings about the consequences of the continued inability to deal with the root causes that lead to fueling unrest in this part of the world, which threatens to spread its scope to other regions, inside and outside the African continent.
Analysts considered that focusing on the military approach alone in dealing with the crises witnessed by the “African Sahel” would only lead to achieving interim gains and tactical victories, stressing that limiting oneself to making efforts characterized by that unilateral nature, focusing on the security dimension alone or seeking To limit the flow of migrants only, or pay attention to humanitarian aspects only, has proven ineffective, and has not led to the development of comprehensive solutions to the region’s problems.
Such solutions require, according to observers, the creation of political frameworks that would enhance social and economic development and consolidate the nature of decentralized local governance in the Sahel countries, which are bordered by the countries of North Africa on the one hand, and the Sahara region in the African continent on the other hand.
According to analysts, the roots of the crises afflicting the “African Sahel” are due to a number of combined factors, most notably the lack of good governance in a number of countries in the region, and ignoring the needs and aspirations of significant segments of its population, in addition to the lack of confidence among some societal groups in… These countries and each other, in addition to the unregulated exploitation of natural resources there.
These factors led to this region becoming like a “powder keg” waiting to explode, after it became plundered by simultaneous political, economic, and security storms for several decades.
Since 2020, the “African Sahel” has witnessed 6 military coups, and acts of violence and terrorist attacks have escalated in its territory, in parallel with the acceleration of the pace of arms smuggling operations, and the increasing strength of criminal gangs and human trafficking networks.
The seriousness of the current situation in this strategically located region is exacerbated by estimates that its population will rise from 84 million people at present to 196 million by 2050, which escalates the pressures placed on the governments of its countries, which appear to be a corridor linking… The northwest and south of the continent, and it borders countries overlooking the Red Sea, and others overlooking the Atlantic Ocean.
Analysts stressed that the regional and international powers concerned with the situation in the Sahel region, which extends over an area of approximately three million square kilometers, cannot ignore the escalating tensions in their territories for a long time, given that the ongoing unrest there opens the door to facing bleak scenarios that may increase. Due to the complexity of the challenges faced by its residents.
Among these scenarios, as stated in a report published on the website of the American Foreign Policy Research Institute, is the outbreak of violent chaos of an institutional nature in the region, which may include, in this case, the ruling authorities, armed groups, terrorist organizations, crime gangs, and drug, gold, and human trafficking. .
Within the framework of this scenario, these parties may engage in frantic attempts, either to dispute over resources or to share them, without regard in either case to the interests of the peoples of the region.
The second possible scenario, in the event of failure to curb the current unrest in the “African Sahel,” is the possibility of a broad alliance forming along the border between this region and the countries located to its north and south, which may include rebel groups and social segments that suffer from marginalization. .
According to the report, the continuation of the current state of instability in West Africa threatens the emergence of a third scenario, in which terrorist organizations exploit the opportunity to declare the establishment of a “caliphate,” like the one declared in Iraq and Syria in the middle of the last decade by ISIS, which was only dismantled. At the hands of an international military and political coalition, led by the United States.
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