russian troops continued their slow but inexorable advance in other key areas of Ukraine on Tuesday after the conquest of Lysychansk, which gave them full control of Lugansk.
In fact, Moscow has already focused its attention on neighboring Donetsk province, where troops carried out artillery attacks on Tuesday in the direction of Sloviansk, as well as in Kramatorsk, two key kyiv strongholds in the area.
(Also read: ‘We are facing an undesirable new international order’)
But the attacks in the Donbas Doubts have grown about what the real goals of Russian President Vladimir Putin are with the war.
Except for a military turnaround, for the experts, the Russian leader has several cards in hand, although his intentions remain unknown: does he intend to consolidate Donbas? Move along? Negotiate to record his territorial gains?
“All options are on the table”, summarizes Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES).
(You may be interested in: Russia and Ukraine “violated international norms”, says Bachelet)
future scenarios
One of President Putin’s main options, according to analysts, is to continue advancing in the conquest of Ukrainian territory, since no one seems able to prevent him from completely subjugating Donbas, already partly under the control of pro-Russian separatists since 2014.
“Russia can hope to conquer Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and their surroundings,” says Pierre Grasser, a researcher at the Sirice laboratory at the Sorbonne University in Paris. Something that has already begun to be seen with the attacks on Tuesday, in which at least two people died and seven were injured after bombing markets.
(Also: Zelensky warned that Russia could invade another country in Europe)
All options are on the table for Moscow
However, the Kremlin has not yet started the massive offensive against these two areas.
According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the Russian president could have ordered his troops in Ukraine to “pause to reorganize after the victories in Lugansk.”
US experts believe that “Russian troops who fought in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk are likely to need a significant period of rest and reconditioning before resuming large-scale offensive operations” in Ukraine.
However, it remains unclear whether the Russian military will accept the risks of an operational pause long enough to allow these forces to regain their strength.
Experts also believe that the Russians can now opt for the conquest of the Black Sea.
“The war in the south and the liberation of the Ukrainian ports from the Russian encirclement is a front of much greater strategic importance” than the Donbas, estimates Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general.
(You can read: Russia announces the conquest of all of Lugansk, a key bastion of Ukraine)
According to the analyst, control of the coast would give Moscow territorial continuity with Crimea and access to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.
And Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city, may also be another target, according to Pierre Razoux. But a battle for control of this city would be very devastating and the siege could last “a year”, he calculates.
The end of the offensive?
The other question on the table is whether he can end the invasion. For them, Putin could also choose to put a stop to the war, since the progress they have achieved in the territory should not make us forget their cost in terms of sanctions, human losses and destruction. Thus, the president has, according to analysts, multiple reasons to stop the invasion.
(In other news: Russia to shut down foreign media outlets over fake news)
At the end of June, the Kremlin already opened the possibility of negotiations, but in the form of an ultimatum. “The Ukrainian soldiers must be ordered (…) to lay down their arms and all the conditions set by Russia must be applied. Then everything will be over in one day,” said Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s spokesman.
It could then have its objectives fulfilled and justify internally a pause in the war. The outlook remains uncertain after four months of conflict.
Accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO begins
Meanwhile, the 30 ambassadors of the NATO countries formally began on Tuesday the process of ratifying the accession of Sweden and Finland with the signing of the protocols at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
The next phase will be the ratification process in each of the allied countries. However, the process varies from nation to nation, so it is difficult to predict when the two Nordic countries will become full members of the alliance.
(Also: NATO prepares for tense years with Russia and warns about China)
While some need votes in their parliaments, others, like Canada, only require government approval.
For now, Sweden and Finland will be able to participate in the meetings while the allies ratify their accession.
*With information from EFE and AFP
More news
Illinios shooting: Suspected shooter charged with seven murders
Mexico: they demand to repair a woman whose legs were amputated by mistake
The ‘Niño del terror’, a young serial killer who hid in Colombia
#Vladimir #Putins #plans #Ukraine #conquest #Lugansk