Omikron is spreading rapidly in Denmark and Great Britain. For virologist Sandra Ciesek “the flags are on red”. Other experts also warn against experiments.
Munich – “Boosting is no protection against an Omicron infection,” emphasizes the Frankfurt virologist Sandra Ciesek in a virtual press briefing from Science Media. With a view to the Omikron variant, she considers the fact that the test is now compulsory for boosted users to be “not good”. Testing is an important tool, a way to slow down the spread of Omikron. Omikron has already arrived in Germany. When does it really start in Germany? The data from Denmark and Great Britain do not bode well. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people become infected.
“Omikron takes over” – Denmark a role model for Germany?
Those who are boosted can become infected with the omicron variant and have symptomatic courses. Ciesek recently referred to a case study from South Africa in which seven Germans were infected with Omikron *. Boosters are no protection against infection with Omikron. In boosted patients, the protection falls off after three months, the virologist in the clinic observed. However, a booster vaccination protects against severe disease. Omikron can escape the antibodies faster. However, if the virus penetrates the cells, the T cells are ready. How does Omikron affect hospitalization or mortality? The data situation is still too thin, and much is still unclear. But corona researchers fear that Germany is running out of time. Hope is dashed after reports of mild progress at Omikron.
Virologist Ciesek: “Boosters are no protection against an Omicron infection”
Virologist Ciesek calls for quick action. “Denmark first proclaimed Freedom Day – now everything has been shut down again immediately.” The neighboring country got it faster. “Omikron takes over” (Danish: Omikron tager over) is the heading of the Corona report that the state serum institute SSI published earlier this week.
Expert: Omikron spreads faster than other coronavirus variants
Nobody had expected the Omicron variant. Now Omikron is spreading at an unimaginable speed. “With a doubling time for infection cases of 2 to 3 days, nobody had that on their radar before,” says physicist and complexity researcher Dirk Brockmann. Brockmann is a professor at the Humboldt University in Berlin and is an epidemiological modeler from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
“Omikron is per se more contagious than the Delta variant,” says Brockmann from Berlin Science Media-Conversation firm. In his opinion, this cannot be explained by the mutations alone – at least so far. Different modeling groups would be working on it.
Omicron is then the 5th wave.
Anything can happen quickly at Omikron, as seen in the UK and Denmark. When exactly will that happen in Germany? “Unfortunately”, Brockmann could not name an exact point in time. But he is certain: “Omikron will then be the 5th wave.” And it would run like it did in Great Britain and Denmark. “Omikron is much more dynamic in terms of its probability of spreading.” One factor – the first and second vaccinations are no longer effective. The virus encounters “little immunological resistance in the population.” It is important to keep the damage as small as possible. Virologist Christian Drosten has already rushed ahead with a gloomy Omicron prognosis: “From January we will have a serious problem.”
40 million infected people – experts model Omirkon worst-case scenario
Brockmann and his team did a modeling for Great Britain – what happens if Omikron does not take any measures. The result: 40 million people will become infected. A scenario that can be roughly applied to our population.
“It can’t be stopped, I think that’s out of the question,” estimates Brockmann. And further: “No season of the year will help in Germany, that would surprise me.” To slow down Omikron in Germany, a lot more would have to happen than in the first Corona wave. The modeler hopes that contingency plans will come on the table before the omicron wave. Different scenarios can also be broken down into a worst-case scenario. “Hope is not the card we should bet on.”
Virologist Sandra Ciesek: “flags are on red”
Because of the delta variant, the corona situation in Germany is already tense. The intensive care units are full. More than 400 deaths are recorded every day. With Omikron, however, the situation can quickly get out of hand.
“A large part of the staff in the hospital and in the care sector was boosted in August and September,” warns virologist Sandra Ciesek. However, the booster protection wears off after about three months. That would have fatal consequences: The staff in the clinics become infected at the same time and then have to be sent home. Ciesek urges you to adhere to the AHL measures and also to test yourself for Corona or to refrain from events. Anyone who has contact with risk groups must be careful. Everyone must do their part now to slow down the virus. The virologist admits that the situation is difficult to assess at the moment. But until further data are available from Denmark and Great Britain, the “flags are on red”. * Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
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