Ms. Flournoy, President Biden wants to focus on China on foreign policy. He wanted to end the anti-terror wars, leave the problems with Russia largely to the Europeans and face the Chinese challenge. Is Putin thwarting his plan?
History teaches us that even the best strategies are often disrupted by reality. I think what we’re seeing here is Putin addressing Biden: No matter how much you want to turn your attention to the Indo-Pacific and the challenge of China’s rise, I’m still here — and I’ll pursue my goals, my spheres of influence enlarge and be a thorn in your flesh.
What are Putin’s real goals in Ukraine? He cannot seriously believe that Washington will reverse NATO expansion. Is his message addressed to Kiev: give up Donbass? Or does it mean Biden not to treat him like a mere regional power, as Obama once said?
Putin associates several messages with his actions. First of all he says: It would be a mistake not to count on Russia anymore. We are still a great power. We still demand attention. In addition, Putin wants to regain his sphere of influence in Russia’s periphery and be the dominant force in the states of the former Soviet Union. Seeing it as a threat to Russia when Kiev gets too close to the West and the West helps Kiev become a true democracy and fight the corruption problem, he tells both Ukraine and Europe that he should step in and it will prevent.
Was it a coincidence that the American debacle in Afghanistan was followed by both Russian and Chinese provocations – on the Ukrainian border and in the Taiwan Straits?
I have seen nothing that speaks for a coordinated action by Moscow and Beijing. But if you’re in Beijing, you’ll hear a persistent and enduring narrative of America’s decline. In the face of the challenge to our democracy, our pandemic management, and our economic woes, America is dead. This is the time of China. Beijing will be the dominant power of the future. Things are a little different in Moscow: Putin is always on the lookout for opportunities when he thinks America is self-absorbed or the West is divided. He opportunistically sees such moments as opportunities to advance his cause.
50 years ago, Nixon traveled to China and used the Sino-Soviet rivalry to oppose Moscow. Today, it appears that Putin is using the West’s competition with China and internal frictions in the West to his advantage.
I think Putin sees the competition between China and the US as an opportunity. And I suspect Xi also sees some of the tensions between Washington and Moscow as an opportunity. But I don’t think we’re at a point where we can talk about a strong alliance between China and Russia. There is a sort of opportunistic ad hoc collaboration when it serves their interests. We have to be careful not to drive them even further into each other’s arms.
That requires unity, which doesn’t always exist, see Nord Stream 2. Was it part of Putin’s calculation that Biden would not be willing to damage relations with Berlin over the sanctions issue?
When Biden took office, he promised to restore relations with allies. German-American relations had priority. The White House came to the conclusion that Nord Stream 2 is important for Berlin and that the project is also very far advanced. So the government decided not to impose new sanctions. Nevertheless, it was made clear to Moscow that America and Germany will try to stop the project together if Putin sends soldiers across the Ukrainian border. But there is an even bigger issue in this context: And that is Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. As allies, we must tackle this issue together over time.
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