Where to vote in the world in 2024: the agenda
Sure, he United States. But not only. Indeed, never before will the US elections be the only important ones in the world as in 2024. In fact, in 2024 more than half of the world's population will be called to vote. Countries that together have four billion inhabitants have important elections scheduled for various reasons, with effects that could be regional and global as well as internal.
At least they will be 76 countries will hold elections in which all voters will have the opportunity to vote in 2024. According to the 71 countries covered by the Economist's Democracy Index, 43 will enjoy fully free and fair voting (27 of which are EU members); the other 28 do not satisfy the essential conditions for a democratic vote. Eight of the ten most populous countries in the world – Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and the United States – will hold elections in 2024.
In the most democratic countries, such as United Kingdom, elections will decide the next government or cause a substantial change in policy. In Russia, one of the least democratic countries, the vote is very unlikely to weaken Vladimir Putin's grip on power. For countries where democracy appears to be eroding, such as India or the United States, elections are still important and can also be free and fair. But other aspects of democracy, such as participation or governance, have weaknesses. Some countries, such as Brazil and Turkey, will not hold general elections in 2024, but local or municipal elections in which the entire country will participate. Likewise, the 27 member states of'European Union they will elect the next parliament of the bloc.
Elections in the world 2024: the calendar from Taiwan and India to the EU and the USA
But let's take a look at the calendar by reviewing the most important elections. On January 13th Taiwan we will vote for the presidential elections and for the change of Parliament. A vote that will inevitably affect relations with China. The Democratic Progressive Party, the most disliked in Beijing, will probably retain control of the presidency but parliament could be without a majority. Chinese reactions to the outcome of the vote are to be expected.
On February 4th, at El Salvador we will vote to change the president and the Parliament. There has been an authoritarian turn in the Central American country in recent years with Bukele seeking a second term.
On December 22nd the electoral commission Pakistani has announced general elections for February 8, but it is unclear whether the vote will take place. There are few signs of large-scale campaigns being launched and observers note a deterioration in the security situation. The ruling establishment is meanwhile concerned about the popularity of Imran Khan, the jailed former prime minister, and his efforts to subvert the trial.
On February 14th, in Indonesia we will vote for the presidential elections and for the change of Parliament. More than 200 million people are eligible to vote in the presidential election, making it the largest direct presidential vote in the world. Three candidates – Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan – are running to replace two-term President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Despite Prabowo's lead, the latest polls indicate that no one is capable of winning a majority of votes, making a run-off in June likely.
There will also be a vote on February 25th Belarus for the presidential elections, but the re-election of Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has very close ties with Vladimir Putin's Russia and Xi Jinping's China, is almost certain.
On March 1st, in Iran we will vote for the change of Parliament, but even in this case no major changes are expected. A possible advance by the conservatives should be observed in a scenario in which the risk of an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East is sadly becoming more and more concrete.
In Indiain May, Narendra Modi's BJP, the largest political party in the world with over 180 million members, is expected to win even after having effectively paralyzed the opposition with a progressive erosion of the rights of even civil minorities.
On June 2, 2024, the Mexico will go to vote for the presidential elections and for the change of Parliament. An important vote for Latin American balances and relations with the USA, with the migrant issue always at the top of the agenda
Between 6 and 9 June 2024, there will be the long-awaited events European elections. 720 representatives will have to be appointed, 15 more than in the last European election. The community vote is called upon to establish the new continental balance. The doubt is about the stability of the large coalition that allowed Ursula von der Leyen to become president of the European Commission or whether there will instead be a shift to the right, also favored by the foreseeable focus of the vote which could also be on immigration as well as on economic issues .
In BrazilOctober's municipal elections will reveal whether President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's left-wing Workers Party can gain at the expense of the right-wing Liberal Party, which dominates Congress and is supported by Lula's right-wing predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
In November, obviously, the United States they will elect their next president, as well as the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. Of the five aspects of democracy measured by the EIU – electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture and civil liberties – America scored the lowest for political culture. President Joe Biden will probably face Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, in a repeat of the 2020 challenge. The transition phase should be carefully observed given what happened on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2020.
Several elections scheduled in Africa. Voting will take place in African countries with a total population of over 330 million inhabitants, including Algeria, Ghana and Mozambique. The largest will be in South Africa, where more than 60 million people live. A divided and weak opposition means that despite a series of corruption scandals, the ruling African National Congress is all but certain to win again.
Two more elections could be added to the list. With the bleak economic outlook casting a shadow over the ruling Conservative Party in United Kingdom, in power for nearly 14 years, polls suggest the opposition Labor Party is likely to win Britain's next general election, which embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to hold in 2024.
Also pay attention to theUkraine, which theoretically should hold presidential elections later this year. Volodymyr Zelensky has not ruled out holding the vote, despite the country being under martial law, which prohibits it. A sort of long-distance confrontation with Putin with various unknowns and risks.
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