The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised this Wednesday (3) the basic interest rate (Selic) by 1.5 percentage points, from 9.25% to 10.75% per year – a return to double digits after five years.
Raising the Selic rate is a maneuver used by the Central Bank to control inflation, which is far from the center of the target, and thereby reduce the volume of money circulating in the country. In practice, this means that it will be more expensive for you get loans at the bank, pay purchases in installments with interest and fall into overdraft, for example.
+ Higher Selic rate makes investment in fixed income more attractive
A simulation made by the National Association of Finance, Administration and Accounting Executives (Anefac) shows that the financing of a refrigerator of R$ 1,500 in 12 installments should be at least R$ 13.79 more expensive in the month with the new Selic
For those who pay an overdraft of R$1,000 for 20 days, there is an additional R$0.80 per day, while R$3,000 on the revolving credit card for 30 days will be increased by R$3.60.
The same projection of costing applies to operations such as personal loans: R$ 5 thousand withdrawn from the bank with payment in 12 months should be, on average, R$ 44.20 more expensive per month; financing the car in 60 months should be R$ 33.11 more expensive per installment, adding R$ 1,968.41 more to the operation.
Yet another interest rate policy adjustment and cloudy fiscal risk
A report by broker Rico Investimentos showed that the increase in the Selic rate should take 6 to 9 months to be felt in the economy. The risk, in this case, is that the Copom has already indicated that it should make one more adjustment in the basic interest rate by the end of the first quarter and the elections play a negative component for the fiscal risk – the dollar may rise and continue to mismatch the inflation, further harming the Brazilian monthly budget.
“Thus, for the daily life of Brazilians, the rise in interest rates and the fall in inflation will be felt gradually. In other words, we should expect higher credit costs (in different modalities) over the next few months. Likewise, the rise in prices should start to lose strength especially in the second half of the year, and we expect inflation to end 2022 at 5.2% – a significant drop from last year’s 10.06%”, indicated the economists at Rich Investments.
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