This escalation on both sides came with the introduction of the Chinese initiative regarding the start of talks between the West and Russia to stop the war, which raises questions about the timing of the increase in tension and its consequences.
Since the Ukrainian war entered its second year on February 25, attacks have escalated between Moscow and Kiev, amid military preparations on both sides for the spring offensive.
Feb 25th
• Fighters of the Russian “Wagner” group took control of the village of Yagedni, north of Bakhmut.
• Russia shot down 3 Ukrainian fighters in Donetsk and Kherson, and 8 drones in separate areas, in addition to destroying two ammunition depots for Ukrainian forces in Ogildar, Donetsk, and Malinovka, in the Zaporizhia region.
Feb 26th
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that the field situation in Bakhmut had become complicated for Ukrainian soldiers.
• In the battle of Bakhmut, the Russian forces surrounded it from 3 fronts, east, north and south, leaving only one way for the Ukrainian army to withdraw.
• At a time when Russia announced the progress of “Wagner” inside Bakhmut, where it is only 1000 meters away from its center, the Ukrainian forces said that the Russian attacks failed.
February 27th
• Removed Zelensky, the commander of the joint forces in the Donbass, Eduard Moskaliev, from his post.
• Ukrainian intelligence confirmed Kiev’s intention to launch a counter-offensive in the spring to expel Russian forces from southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces cut off supply routes for the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut.
• Russia sent units more prepared than “Wagner” to the fronts in Ukraine.
Feb 28th
• Targeting a Ukrainian march near Moscow.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Kiev attacked civilian infrastructure sites in the Krasnodar region and the Republic of Adygea in two marches.
Reasons for escalation
The Russian and Ukrainian armies are racing to make military progress east, because controlling Bakhmut allows the victorious side to advance in the Donbass region.
Political analyst Mustafa Al-Tousa attributes the development of events in recent days to the fact that the two sides of the conflict are seeking to achieve a military equation that enables them to impose conditions on the other party in the event of reaching the negotiation stage.
Therefore, Russia is racing against time to tighten control over Bakhmut, and seeks to break the Ukrainian army, while Ukrainian demands continue to accelerate military support from the West, according to Al-Tusah.
Regarding the significance of the Ukrainian attacks near Moscow, Al-Toussa says: “It is perhaps the result of a provocative intelligence operation that wants to ignite an international war, and we should not give these attacks more than they deserve.”
Al-Tusa justified its insignificance by saying that Ukraine is obliged not to attack Russian soil clearly based on the conditions set by the West for the use of weapons provided to Kiev, and to emphasize that they are defensive, not offensive, so that the battles do not turn into a third world war.
Calm fate
Amid this military escalation, the Kremlin renewed, on Tuesday, Moscow’s willingness to enter into negotiations to end the conflict, on the condition that it not abandon the four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhya) that it annexed last September.
A few days ago, China put forward a 12-point initiative aimed at urging the two warring parties to dialogue, which was welcomed by Russia, Germany and France, while the United States questioned the intentions of the proposal.
Commenting on the fate of the Chinese mediation, Al-Tusa believes that “no one can predict its results, especially since any attempts at calm are linked to two questions: Will Russia withdraw from Ukrainian lands empty-handed? And will the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans accept abandoning the four Ukrainian regions?”
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