Ukraine still has a month, perhaps 45 days, to make the most of its counteroffensive in the war against Russia. Then, with the worsening of weather conditions and the subsequent arrival of winter, maneuvers in the field will become more complex. Outlining the picture, as the operations of the Kiev forces enter a crucial phase, is General Mark Milley, American chief of staff, who for now refuses excessively negative judgments.
“The offensive began about 90 days ago. It went slower than expected. But there is a difference between what Clausewitz called the war on paper and the real war”, says the general, underlining that there are still “30 0 45 days, a considerable period” of fighting before the rains and cold arrive.
“It’s too early to say how it will end. The Ukrainians have achieved partial success in what they have done, and that is important.” “Then the rains will come. And it will be very muddy. At that point it will be difficult to maneuver and then winter will come. At that stage we will see how things are. But now it is too early to say whether the counteroffensive has failed or not“Milley points out.
THE NEW WEAPONS COMING SOON, WHAT CHANGES
In the coming weeks, Kiev will have the new aid package prepared by Washington at its disposal. Depleted uranium ammunition is arriving, in particular the 120 mm projectiles for the Abrams tanks, which should debut soon in Ukraine. Furthermore, the United States is considering sending long-range missiles, the Atacms, which could be a real ‘game changer’ in a context that is currently almost blocked.
“The Ukrainians have achieved constant progress. They are not finished, the war is not over. They have not concluded this phase, which they are trying to complete with a series of objectives. It is too early to say how it will end”, reiterates the general.
COUNTER-OFFENSIVE, WHERE THE UKRAINIANS ARRIVED
The latest news refers to progress in the Robotyne area, in the Zaporizhzhia region, not far from the strategic hub of Tokmak, which has a high logistical value for Russia. “We continue to make small progress in the Robotyne area. Approximately one and a half square kilometers of Ukrainian territory has been liberated”, the southern command said, without however clarifying when the latest progress was made.
In the various analyses, to get a more complete picture, reference can also be made to the counteroffensive that Kiev conducted in the second part of 2022. Last year, Russian forces were pushed eastwards from the Kharkiv region: Ukraine reconquered the city of Lyman on September 30, 2022 and after another 6 weeks, approximately in mid-November, he achieved the liberation of Kherson.
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