First launch of missiles and air raids. Then the invasion of the ground forces, with a high risk of civilian casualties. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is thus outlined in the scenario outlined by Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to US President Joe Biden. The US believes Russia could launch the offensive this week, but continues to hope diplomacy can prevail.
Speaking at CNN, Sullivan said an invasion could take place before the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which will end on February 20. “A major military action could start in Ukraine overnight,” she said. “We cannot predict the day” with absolute precision “but for some time we have been repeating that we are in this time window. A military action could start at any moment: this speech also includes the week that opens before the end of the Olympics”.
The United States, as a source in the Biden administration said, believes that Russia has deployed over 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine.
“The way they have increased their forces, the way they have maneuvered things in place, opens up the clear possibility of major military action very soon,” Sullivan said, noting, “We are ready to continue working on diplomacy. , but we are also ready to respond in a united and decisive way with our allies and partners should Russia proceed. “
The United States believes that any Russian military action would begin with a missile launch and air strikes. “They are never as accurate as any army would like. We don’t know how accurate the Russians would want them. Innocent civilians could be killed, regardless of their nationality,” Sullivan said, reiterating the call for American citizens to leave the country. After the initial phase, according to the scenario outlined by Sullivan, the Russian strategy would develop with “the advance of the ground forces across the border. Again, innocent civilians could find themselves” in clashes or “in places from which they could move away “. The spark could come with a Russian provocation, an event engineered by Moscow to justify a reaction. The hypothesis, Sullivan reiterated, is plausible on the basis of information provided by intelligence: “I think we should be ready”.
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