The new agricultural export rules ban the export of millet, buckwheat, sugar, live cattle, meat and other “by-products” from livestock.
In a statement, Ukraine’s Minister of Agricultural and Food Policy Roman Leshchenko said the export ban is necessary to prevent a “humanitarian crisis in Ukraine”, stabilize the market and “meet the needs of the population for important food products,” the Associated Press reported.
11 countries affected
Together, Russia and Ukraine provide nearly a third of the world’s exports of wheat and barley, the prices of which have risen since the start of the Ukraine war.
Export bans are likely to reduce global food supplies; Prices reached their highest level since 2011.
The decision to ban wheat exports would cause a crisis in food supplies in African and Middle Eastern countries. Where it will be the most affected, while wheat is used in the manufacture of bread, pasta and animal feed in those countries and all over the world, and any shortage could threaten food security in a number of countries.
With this decision, 11 countries in the Middle East and North Africa became; Most notably, Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Tunisia and Jordan, as well as Malaysia, Indonesia and Bangladesh, are threatened by rising bread prices.
Yemen and Libya respectively import 22 percent and 43 percent of their total wheat consumption from Ukraine, while in 2020 Ukraine also exported more than 20 percent of its wheat to Malaysia, Indonesia and Bangladesh.
A ‘hunger crisis’ is on the horizon
Russian analyst and economic expert, Karsten Fritsch, warned of a “hunger crisis” threatening many countries, saying that “the price of wheat is rising more than ever, and the hunger crisis is looming in many countries.”
Fritsch adds that the countries of North Africa and the Middle East are among the largest importers of grain, and will be most at risk of food security.
Dr. Nabil Rashwan, an expert in Russian affairs, says: The Ukrainian-Russian crisis will necessarily affect wheat prices. Because the two countries are major exporters around the world.
He added, in statements to “Sky News Arabia”, that the military escalation led to the closure of the main ports in Ukraine, and the transportation and logistics sector was affected, and trade with Moscow also faltered, due to the complexities of sanctions and the high costs of insurance and shipping.
And he added, “The military operation paralyzed the Ukrainian agricultural sector, as it represents an important part of the national identity, to the extent that its flag depicts a blue sky covering the fields of yellow farms.”
“With the start of the military operation, some Ukrainian farmers left for field work or joined the army only weeks before the start of spring planting, another problem that contributed to the decline in wheat supplies,” he added.
Rashwan asserts that Ukraine’s decision to ban wheat imports will cause a humanitarian crisis in some countries in the Middle East, such as Lebanon and Yemen, and will lead to an unprecedented rise in prices. “We are starting to see the impact of this on many food commodities such as Egypt, Tunisia and others.”
Severe fears in 3 countries
In addition to growing fears across the Middle East and North Africa, of rising prices of basic foodstuffs, with wheat supplies hurting, Tunisia, Yemen and Lebanon fear unrest, according to the British newspaper, “The Guardian”.
In Tunisia, which imports half of its wheat imports from Ukraine, the war pushed prices up to their highest level in 14 years.
Although “the Tunisian state controls the price of bread, people fear that they will inevitably feel the crisis,” according to “The Guardian”.
Accordingly, Tunisia is “highly vulnerable to such aftershocks, with its fragile economy damaged in recent years by inflation, high unemployment, and huge amounts of public debt.
Yemen imports nearly all of its wheat, more than a third of which comes from Russia and Ukraine, and relies heavily on bread, which is believed to make up more than half of the calories eaten by average families in the country, according to the British newspaper.
Likewise, Lebanon, which is in the grip of an economic crisis with record-high inflation, imports more than half of its wheat from Ukraine.
And the Lebanese Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, said last Friday that the country has enough wheat for a month or a month and a half.
Many of the commodities affected by the war were of “particular importance” to the Middle East and North Africa, according to Abeer Etefa, a spokeswoman for the Cairo-based World Food Programme, noting that getting grain from two other sources would not be easy.
Obstacles increase the price
There is a surplus in global wheat production this year, but if you look at where the wheat is coming from, that means longer lead times and higher transportation costs than Ukraine, says Atifa.
As for the Lebanese economist, Basem Ajaga, he says: Many Arab countries that depend on importing Russian and Ukrainian wheat will face a great challenge to ensure their wheat supplies.
Ajaqa added that “the repercussions differ according to each country. In the short term, the most affected countries are Lebanon and Yemen.”
Russia and Ukraine account for up to a third of global wheat exports, with many of these exports going to the Middle East; To keep bread prices affordable, according to the American Wall Street newspaper.
Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe” and is responsible for 10 percent of the world’s wheat exports. Ukraine and Russia are also major suppliers to Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat.