Ukraine, all-out war between Zelensky and Zaluzhny: replacement in sight or fake news?

There is the 27-party agreement on aid to Ukraine. The announcement came via social media from the President of the European Council Charles Michel, shortly after the start of the work of the European Council. While in the international press, after weeks of rumors of tensions, what could be the pinnacle of the war is being staged clash that has been ongoing for months between the Ukrainian president and the commander in chief of the Army, the popular Valerii Zaluzhny. The latter could be torpedoed, according to news also released by the Financial Times, Washington Post and CNN. The names of Kyrylo Budanov, powerful head of military intelligence (GUR), and Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the ground forces, are circulating as possible successors to Zaluzhny. But it all stems from what is “fake news spread by the Russians, by the Kremlin”, at least according to what Ilha Ponomarev, a former Russian deputy who was the only one to vote against the annexation of Crimea to the Federation, told Adnkronos, in exile for years in Ukraine, where he obtained citizenship.

Amid the uncertainty, the name of 38-year-old Kyrylo Budanov resounds, known – highlights the American network – for his strong ties with Zelensky and seen as the representative of a new generation of military leaders, who has earned the reputation of a man of few words but capable of bringing results. He asks for more support from the West. According to the Post, if he were to be chosen over Zaluzhny his appointment could mark a step towards 'asymmetric' tactics, such as drone strikes deep into Russian territory, but Budanov, who has been in the special forces, has no command experience of the Army. According to the Ukrainians, he survived at least ten assassination attempts during his career. And last November Marianna Budanova, his wife, was allegedly poisoned with arsenic and mercury. She survived.

Oleksandr Syrsky, 58 years old, is instead known because he was credited with leading the defense of Kiev in the first month of the war, now two years ago. Then, in autumn 2022, he orchestrated a successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area. But he would not be much loved by the troops. Both Syrsky and Budanov are considered 'favorites' of Zelensky and his advisor Andriy Yermak.

There is, at least for now, no official announcement on the possible removal of Zaluzhny, the man who in recent months aroused strong irritation in Zelensky's office for having said that the war had reached a “stall”, in the midst of 'disappointment' in the West with the results of the counteroffensive. Indeed, on Monday the presidential spokesperson, Serhiy Nykyforov, told CNN that it was all false. He also denied the Ministry of Defense. But the news continued to spread. American press sources spoke of a small meeting held on Monday in Zelensky's office who on that occasion stated that he had decided to remove the commander in chief of the armed forces, offering him a new position. A proposal that would have been rejected. Yesterday CNN asked Zelensky's office again, but got no response.

Yet the 50-year-old Zaluzhny, CNN highlights, remains one of the most popular leaders in Ukraine. The torpedoing of Zaluzhny, the FT pointed out in recent days, would have strong repercussions not only within the armed forces, but also on public opinion. According to a poll published in December by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology, 88% of Ukrainians appreciate Zaluzhny and 62% approve of Zelensky's work.

Zaluzhny's popularity, both among the military and among the public, makes his eventual removal a political gamble for the Ukrainian president, the Washington Post pointed out. Not to mention the risks from a strategic point of view, at a time when Russia is attacking and the West is slowing down on military assistance to Kiev. And not to mention that the general has built a close relationship with his interlocutors in the West. According to the Post, among the reasons for tension with the president is also the number of troops to be mobilised: Zaluzhny wants to recall almost 500 thousand soldiers, but for Zelensky these numbers are difficult to manage given the scarcity of uniforms, armaments, training camps and money to pay the troops. If his replacement is confirmed it would be the biggest change in the Ukrainian military command in wartime. Meanwhile, the conflict continues and is about to enter its third year, which began with the Russian invasion, which the Kremlin announced on February 24, 2022 as a “special military operation”.

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