Türkiye elections, Erdogan the perfect excuse to avoid Ankara joining the EU
But we are sure that the European Union is rooting for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu at elections in Türkiye on Sunday 14 May? Perhaps officially, but unofficially in Brussels and Strasbourg many probably hope that in the end it will emerge Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yes, precisely the sultan, defined several times as a “dictator” and by others as a “bloody despot”. Included Mario Draghithen forced to take a step back after he had branded the Turkish president as a dictator as prime minister.
Why could Europe root for the “monster”? The first reason is quite intuitive. The fact that Erdogan is in power, above all because in recent years he has taken an increasingly authoritarian turn, has allowed the EU to avoid the question of Turkey’s possible accession to the European Union. For many European politicians, Erdogan has been a useful cover, which has allowed the EU to legitimately exclude any serious discussion with Ankara on membership. According to Politico, his behavior deemed increasingly unacceptable, with the imprisonment of political opponents and attacks against the rules of the rule of law, gave the EU the excuse to avoid the issue.
A regime change could alter this dynamic, but bringing the issue of Turkish membership back into the news would be a thorny affair for the EU to say the least. Many countries are against it, just as sovereign forces from all over Europe are deeply hostile to even opening accession negotiations for Ankara, regardless of who is in power. In short, Erdogan’s defeat would probably lead to a series of enthusiastic declarations from many quarters, but underneath it all it would be a big problem for the EU.
Not just for the question of membership. One of the fundamental principles guiding EU foreign policy is the promotion of stability in neighboring regions. Given Turkey’s strategic position straddling Europe and the Middle East, maintaining a stable and predictable political environment in the country is crucial for regional security and cooperation. Supporting Erdogan as incumbent leader could be seen as a means of ensuring continuity, preventing political upheaval and maintaining a degree of stability in the region.
Migrants and economic relations: with Erdogan guarantees of stability and pragmatism
Then there is the issue of the migration and refugee crisis. Turkey has played a significant role in managing migration and refugee flows from conflict regions such as Syria and Iraq. The EU has an interest in cooperating with Turkey to address this crisis and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Erdogan’s government has been instrumental in negotiating and implementing deals, such as the EU-Turkey Statement, aimed at controlling irregular migration and providing support to refugees. Recognizing Erdogan’s role in this regard, the EU could see his support for the elections as a means of supporting this cooperation and preventing a potential rupture in migration management.
There is also a profound economic interdependence. The EU is Turkey’s main trading partner and a significant source of foreign direct investment. The EU has an interest in maintaining a favorable trading environment in Turkey and in guaranteeing economic stability. Erdogan’s administration has implemented economic reforms and pursued policies to attract foreign investment. Supporting Erdogan in the elections could be seen as a pragmatic choice to safeguard economic cooperation and prevent disruptions that could negatively impact Turkish and European businesses.
It should also be remembered that the EU often has demonstrated a pragmatic approach in its foreign policy, favoring stability, dialogue and engagement over confrontation. Despite Erdogan’s government’s concerns over issues such as human rights, media freedom and the rule of law, the EU could opt for a pragmatic stance that focuses on constructive engagement rather than isolation.
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