The year 2021 is likely to be the fifth, sixth or seventh hottest year of the past century and a half. That predicted the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) at the end of October, in the run-up to the climate summit in Glasgow. The fact that 2021 does not end up in number one has to do with the fact that a La Niña occurred at both the beginning and the end of the year, a phenomenon in the Pacific that causes relatively cold temperatures.
It shows that global warming is not a straight upward trend. 2021 isn’t necessarily warmer than 2020. But the trend is clear. This is also apparent from the message from the WMO; the seven warmest years since 1850 are 2015 to 2021. The annual average has increased by 1.1°C since then. That may not sound like much, but the consequences are now undeniable.
That wrote the IPCC, the United Nations climate agency, in August, at the presentation of its latest state of affairs report. In the strongest terms ever, it pointed to humans as the main culprit of global warming.
The role of climate change remains difficult to determine
Most attention is paid to the extreme events. And there were plenty this year. Think of the heat record of 49.6°C that was measured in the Canadian town of Lytton on June 29, followed the next day by a devastating wildfire. Or the continued intense rainfall on July 13, 14 and 15 in parts of Germany, Belgium and Dutch Limburg, which led to serious flooding and more than two hundred deaths.
It remains to be careful with incidental events. The link with climate change is quickly made these days, but the weather is erratic, the natural variation is great. To what extent climate change plays a role in each incident, and to what extent, remains difficult to determine.
A new branch of science, attribution, is trying to do that. A special organization has been set up, the World Weather Attribution, which analyzes a handful of extreme events each year – co-founder Geert Jan van Oldenborgh passed away on October 12. The organization determined that the heat wave in Lytton and the surrounding area would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. Floods in Western Europe in mid-July were “more likely” due to global warming. But climate change plays only a marginal role in the two-year drought in southern Madagascar and the resulting food crisis, the organization said on 1 December.
Arctic region to a completely new state
Apart from the extreme events, many places on Earth are undergoing a steady change due to warming that may attract less attention, but is certainly no less drastic. This is most evident in the Arctic, which is warming two to three times faster than the world on average. The US Ocean and Atmosphere Research Institute, NOAA, this month his 16th annual report about out.
The Arctic is well on its way to a completely new state. Glaciers are melting, causing sea levels to rise. Permafrost thaws, causing damage to buildings and infrastructure. Coasts are crumbling faster. On the tundra, bushes sprout. The beaver is on the rise and is turning entire landscapes to his will. The oceans in the Arctic are acidifying faster than average, with a growing risk of damage to shells and snail shells. This is already being seen in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Amundsen. And with the steady shrinking of the sea ice, shipping is gradually increasing.
Meanwhile, man tries to capture the changes in language. This year, new, or almost forgotten, words surfaced. Like the weather whiplash, a violent change in weather that occurred in the Pacific Northwest. In the summer, the area was hit by record heat, intense drought and scorching fires. From October followed by unprecedented heavy rains.
Or take glacier blood, pink-red coloring glaciers. This is caused by certain algae that are advancing as a result of warming and accelerating the melting of glaciers. Older inhabitants of the French Alps know the phenomenon and call it sang the glacier.
Read more about the climate report: IPCC: Climate change is inevitable and now affects the whole world
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