One of the most recurring themes in the current electoral campaign in the United States is the low popularity of the president Joe Biden and what that implies for his possible re-election next November.
According to the average of 538 polls, seven months before the elections, the Democrat has a pyrrhic 39 percent of popular support, the lowest rate of acceptance for an American president at this point in his term since at least the Second World War.
Despite the bad things, Biden's delicate moment is very similar to what dozens of leaders are going through worldwide, especially in the most developed nations. In fact, compared to the others, the American president's case doesn't even look so gloomy.
According to a global survey conducted by Morning Consult every month, Biden occupies ninth place among a group of 25 leaders from countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Western Hemisphere.
The list is headed by the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi with 78 percent acceptance followed by 63 percent who obtain Andrés Manuel Pérez Obrador (Mexico), 62 percent of Javier Milei (Argentina), 56 percent from Viola Amheard (Switzerland) and Donald Tusk (Poland).
Those 5, by the way, They are the only ones on the list who get more than 50 percent of approval.
Those are followed by Anthony Albanese (Australia), with 48 percent, Giorgia Meloni (Italy) 43 percent, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (Brazil) 43 percent, Biden (39 percent) and Pedro Sanchez (Spain) 38 percent.
The list is followed by Alexander de Croo (Belgium), 38 percent, Ulf Kristersson (Sweden) 36 percent, Leo Varadkar (Ireland) 35 percent, Justin Trudeau (Canada) 35 percent, Recep Erdogan (Turkey) 34 percent , Karl Nehammer (Austria) 30 percent, Mark Rutte (Netherlands) 29 percent, Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa) 28 percent Rishi Sunak (United Kingdom) 26 percent, and Yoon Seok-youl (South Korea) 25 percent hundred.
The last 5 on the list, and those with the worst rating, are Jonas Gahr (Norway), 24 percent, Emmanuel Macron (France) 23 percent, Olaf Sholz (Germany) 22 percent, Petr Fiala (Czech Republic) 17 percent and Fumio Kishida (Japan) 17 percent.
The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro was not included in the evaluation. But if he had been 42 percent approval would have placed him in eighth position, just after Lula da Silvia and one place above Biden.
The list -and his location on it- does not reflect the political orientation of the ruler since Just as there are left and right leaders among the most popular, there are also those among the least.
And although the conditions in each country vary, the authors of the sample maintain that global dissatisfaction with the current leaders is due to four factors that are not necessarily related to the successes or failures of their government.
First of all, there is inflation, a phenomenon that has spread throughout the planet as a consequence of the economic disruption left by the COVID-19 pandemic. Covid-19. Although in the US – to cite an example – it is falling (3.2 percent annual in February)commodity prices remain historically high and there is obvious unease over the perception of impoverishment.
In Europe, As a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the situation is even worse. And the measures that financial institutions have had to take to control inflation also hit the pockets of the majority. Like rising interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowing through credit cards, loans and real estate mortgages.
Although these are trends that are difficult to control through economic policies, the “dirty water” falls on the president in power.
Another relevant factor is migration, which particularly affects richer countries such as the US and European countries. Although analysts allege that the flow of migrants does not increase unemployment and rather helps with inflation –In the US, the unemployment rate is 3.9 percent, the lowest in more than 20 years despite record numbers of migrants. The public perception is that newcomers steal opportunities, make labor cheaper and are a source of crime (something that is also not true).
Something that has been taken advantage of by right-wing leaders who promise to close borders and which plays to the detriment of those in power.
“There are a lot of people, not just on the right, who really care about immigration. And they feel that the center and center-left parties do not represent their views or offer solutions to what they perceive as a problem,” says Sonnet Frisbie, deputy director of political intelligence in Morning Consult.
A third element that weighs is that of inequality. Large sectors of the planet think that big companies and elites have gotten richer while they are getting poorer. Which translates into distrust of elected leaders.
And finally there is the wear that many leaders suffer when they have been in power for several years. And although cases vary, many of those who are worst placed on the list are already at the end of their governments or represent parties that have been governing for years.
In Japan, For example, Kishida's party has been in power for most of the last 70 years, while leaders or parties in France, Canada and Britain have governed for between 7 and 14 years. In the United States, to bring the phenomenon closer, Democrats have occupied the White House for 11 of the last 15 years.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO Correspondent – Washington
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