The invasion of Ukraine by Putin’s army is conditioned by many things: the Western reaction, the state of the terrain full of snow, the number of troops deployed, the determination of the soldiers of Kiev. But there is another variable that nobody thinks about: Omicron is spreading among the troops of both sides and, before fighting, it will be better to defeat the common enemy that threatens the operations of the units.
Both Ukraine and Russia have a very high level of contagion, which is obviously replicated in their respective armies. The soldiers are young and strong, and are unlikely to die from Covid. But General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, told the Guardian that out of 150,000 soldiers in his ranks, 2,400 are already infected and may have transmitted the virus to their fellow soldiers. The number could be much higher, because tests are only performed on those with symptoms. The barracks have been closed to visitors, but it is not known whether to protect soldiers or civilians.
“The pandemic is not influencing our plans too much, because few people get seriously ill – said the officer -, but obviously we must ensure the isolation of cases and also be more careful by wearing a mask and taking other anti-Covid measures” . The high number of infections has knocked out entire departments, which will not be able to be deployed on the front if Putin decides to attack. According to Ukrainian observers, the Russian army also has the same problems, which it does not declare in order to continue to be efficient and ready for anything.
The Americans claim that the Russian assault is imminent and intelligence said Moscow is preparing fake videos with scenes of atrocities committed at the border to justify the attack. The Pentagon, from the Gulf of Tonkin incident for the Vietnam War to Colin Powell’s poisonous vials for the Iraq war, is a great expert on invented excuses to spark a conflict, and perhaps you have to believe them. But according to General Syrskyi there will be no attack, at least judging from what is seen beyond the border.
“We see the exercises, we see the movement, but we do not see preparations for the direct attack or the preparation of the assault units – he said -. There are no logistical bases, no field hospitals. All this is verifiable on the images from space, when it starts to happen we will know ”. According to military observers, the Russians would need three times the Ukrainian armed forces to launch the invasion and at the moment it has deployed an insufficient number of soldiers. The Kremlin’s goal appears to be only to exert psychological pressure on the West and the Ukrainians, not to embark on a very dangerous adventure that could turn into a new Afghanistan.
But it is thought that Covid is also advising caution, which severely hit Russian soldiers massed at the border and infected during the exercises carried out in Belarus. In Ukraine, infections have reached their highest point since the beginning of the pandemic, with almost 44,000 infections per day. Also in Russia there was an all-time high of new cases, with 168,000 infections per day. In both countries less than half of the population has been vaccinated. Soldiers are a little more protected, but mistrust of vaccines is widespread. Before firing a single shot, if ever it is fired, perhaps we will have to wait for the virus to leave the camps, and it will not happen in a short time.
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