The US Labor Statistics Department (BLS) He has published the employment data related to the month of February And he has done it with a bittersweet feeling. The market resists but the data disappoint. Non -agricultural payrolls rebounded in 151,000, more than January 143,000 but less than the almost 159,000 that the market expected. However, as expected, these movements have been unable to alter too much The unemployment rate, which rises a tenth to 4.1% The same as the previous month and two tenths less than a year ago.
He salary growthan important indicator for the Fed in order to measure inflation, increased 4% In February compared to the previous year, compared to 4.1% observed in January. In monthly terms, wages increased by 0.3%, below 0.4% observed the previous month. Meanwhile, the participation rate in the workforce fell to 62.4% from 62.6% observed in January.
For its part, the great revulsion and that more employment generated was the health sector, which hired about 52,000 people. Apart from these signatures, the financial ones were followed, adding 21,000, the logistics, with 18,000 and social assistance, which added nearby 11,000 jobs. After the report the futures of the main Variable Income Indices of the US experienced a certain revaluation, with the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq in positive.
These data were the epicenter of great expectation in the markets after the survey known yesterday, which began to generate an important alert of a potential cooling in the labor market. According to ADP, US private companies added 77,000 workers to their templates in Februarythe lowest increase in seven months, compared to 186,000 reviewed on January and well below the forecasts of 140,000. The sectors of trade, transport, health, education and information recorded employment losses, in a context of political uncertainty and slowing consumer spending.
In any case, the solid performance of the labor market is also one of the keys to the type cuts of the Federal Reserve. While this resist the Central Bank has arguments to maintain a high types. In that sense, recent data has not caused any change in the swap market that is still waiting for three decreases from 25 basic points for the end of the year with a first cut at the June meeting.
From Capital Economics they comment that “the modest increase of 151,000 jobs in non -agricultural payrolls in February confirm that the economy began the weak year, but it is not collapsing towards a recession.” In short Thomas Ryan, the firm’s analyst, explains that “the result is that The labor market is still in good shape And he should be able to withstand the federal government cuts related to the Department of Efficiency (Doge), although we will have to wait until next month to assess the damage. For now, we believe that Fed cuts are still out of the table. “
The labor market is one of the keys to the solid performance of the US economy. Despite high interest rates This has remained strong and without large signs of deteriorationact as a true bastion for consumer spending. In any case, Donald Trump’s tariffs and other measures such as mass layoffs by the Government Efficiency Department of White House Workers enter the scene. All these factors are generating uncertainty in the great argument of US resistance. Regarding the impact of mass layoffs on the February data, it will still take months to let yourself be felt clearly. Employment in the federal government decreased by 10,000 in February, although government payrolls in general increased by 11,000, according to BLS.
From Capital Economics they defend that “The fears of an economy collapsing towards the recession With the government cuts they can resurface in the March Employment Report, when the recent layoffs of the federal government will be a much greater ballast for what were last month. “But” as hiring in the private sector is still maintained at an average quarterly rate quite healthy from 169,000, this suggests that the labor market can handle it. “
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