The US intelligence services maintain a “fragile” optimism about the current situation in Ukraine and they believe that the invasion of the country ordered by the Russian president, Vladimir Putir, could intensify in the short term.
US intelligence sources told CNN that the Ukrainian Army has so far managed to stall Russian ground forces some 30 kilometers north of the besieged capital, without reaching the center of Kiev.
(Due to the public interest that the events between Russia and Ukraine arouse, all our coverage of that invasion and related actions will have free access for all readers of EL TIEMPO)
But while the Ukrainians have defied all predictions regarding what appeared to be a swift assault by Russian forces, there are signs that Putin could imminently increase the intensity of the attack, says CNN.
Ukrainian resistance is being tougher than expected and Russia’s own logistical errors have stalled Moscow’s advance, confirm US and Western officials consulted by the network.
But intelligence and defense officials closely following the Russian campaign believe Putin is still holding a number of moves in reserve that could devastate the Ukrainian resistance.
“From a purely military/tactical point of view, Russia has the manpower and weapons power to take Kiev. There is no question,” said a US source familiar with the intelligence. “And it doesn’t matter how much resistance the Ukrainians put up,” she says.
(Also read: Russia suffers from sanctions and faces financial collapse)
Approximately a quarter of the troops grouped by Russia have not yet entered Ukraine so, according to these sources, the Russian president could still order the start of a less restricted bombing campaign than the previous oneswhich would include new air strikes, long-range missiles and artillery.
“They have been slowed down and frustrated by their lack of progress in the Ukrainian capital, and one of the things that could happen is that they re-evaluate their tactics and potential to be more aggressive and more open in both size and scale when it comes to attack their target in KievAccording to a senior defense official also quoted by CNN.
Administration officials warned lawmakers in classified briefings Monday that a “second wave” of Russian troops will likely consolidate Moscow’s positions inside Ukraine and, by their sheer numbers, will be able to overwhelm Ukrainian resistance, according to two sources familiar with the meetings cited by CNN.
(Also: Bodies Littered in the Streets and Urban Guerrilla: A Death Trap in Kiev)
What could happen is that they reassess their tactics and potential to be more aggressive and more open in both size and scale when attacking their target in Kiev.
The sources also predicted that Russia would probably besiege Kiev and they predicted that terrible scenes of urban warfare would take place in the city.
“The ugly truth remains that Ukraine is vastly outgunned and outmanned, even as Russia has made what military strategists consider a series of obvious mistakes.“, he stresses.
Perhaps most unsettlingly, Western officials are also eyeing Putin warily, now under heavy pressure from crushing economic sanctions that have plunged the ruble and caused the Russian stock market to crash.
They fear that those sanctions, combined with the lack of progress in Kiev, could cause Russia’s unpredictable leader to attack more harshly.
(You can read: ‘Putin is deceiving us’: in Kiev nobody trusts the negotiations)
Leading US lawmakers familiar with intelligence, Western officials and former US officials with extensive experience in Russia have begun to openly question the mental stability of the Russian leader, the network warns.
“Putin has been completely isolated, in part due to covid,” said an intelligence source consulted by the chain. “Now he’s basically alone, completely cut off from most of his advisers, cut off geographically… the only people who talk to him are sycophants who only fuel his resentment.”
The source added that intelligence suggested that Putin has not even been listening to his oligarchs, traditionally the people who have had a key influence on his decision-making.
(Keep reading: With Molotovs and Kalashnikovs, Kiev prepares to “receive” the Russians)
Those questions about Putin’s mental state were also raised during classified briefings by US lawmakers, but administration officials did not answer them clearly, sources familiar with these briefings said, not identified by CNN. .
Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa himself, who attended the Senate briefing, confirmed that Putin’s state of mind was discussed, but declined to elaborate on what was shared.
He said, however, that regardless of the briefing, he is personally concerned about the Russian leader’s state of mind.
EFE
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