The Democratic Party goes to the polls distressed by forecasts that give Biden 39% confidence, while the expectations of the Republicans grow, who had to convince Trump not to present his candidacy for the presidential elections at the last campaign rally
The polls have already opened in the United States to celebrate an electoral event that goes much further than the traditionally tedious mid-term elections. Today, yes, the composition of the House of Representatives, the Senate and the head of the state governments are elected, in addition to hundreds of local and fiscal positions.
But, above all, a tremendously stressed electoral system is put to the test, the US’s ability to overcome the democratic debacle that ended with the assault on Capitol Hill in 2021 and the political future of the president himself. The margin of management, or blocking, of the initiatives of Joe Biden and the rest of a legislature with four major issues on the agenda will depend on the balance of forces that emerges between Democrats and Republicans: the economy, citizen insecurity, abortion and immigration.
The nature of these intermediate elections is complex and, therefore, there will be no usual election night. In states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, to cite two examples, final results are expected within days or even weeks. Will we therefore have to wait until December to find out who has won this November 8? Yes and no. Politicians rely heavily on trends for their immediate future. The Associated Press today deploys 4,000 correspondents on the ground, in addition to a complex network of websites that allow it to collect all the data as certified, from the States to the municipalities.
Coupled with a series of studies, surveys and polls carried out by each communication medium, all of this is capable of offering a vision, if not numerical, of predispositions. Although its value has been mediated since the last two electoral calls due to the unstoppable increase in voting by mail.
This past morning newspapers, television and digital closed their covers with the call of the Democrats to go to the polls to save democracy and that of the Republicans to “humiliate” their rivals. In the last few hours, Trump slightly reduced his anticipated complaints of electoral fraud, perhaps because all the government candidates and the Chambers came out in a storm as virtual winners. The final analyzes drew the Republicans to the conquest of the institutions and the Democrats doing everything possible to avoid a great defeat.
According to these analyses, the conservatives have a good chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives, so yesterday, Monday, their candidates were more focused on the fight for the Senate (where they have half the representation) and the state governments . Capture the leadership of the greater number of the fifty States of the country is another way to block the initiatives of the White House. The Democrats, led by Biden, the latest poll published last night by Ipsos/Reuters gave them a maximum 39% confidence of the voters.
Biden arrived this past morning at the White House after offering his last rally in Maryland /
Biden closed the campaign in Maryland, in a low-risk strategy that has led him to essentially visit Democratic strongholds and avoid those regions where his acceptance is low. Some analyzes attribute its presumed weakness to the fact that these elections have been viewed as a preview of the 2024 presidential elections and the results focused on a fight for democracy, stealing from the debate the issues that most concern citizens on the street, with the economic crisis. , street violence and abortion in the lead. The president’s final message went directly to his Republican rival: “You can’t love your country only when you win.”
In addition to Obama, the campaign managers have given a relevant role to former President Bill Clinton, who was in charge of putting the brooch on the eve of the elections in Texas. Clinton focused his speech on the health advances achieved by the Democrats and warned, in the border town of Laredo, that if the Republicans win in the House they will dismantle Medicare and health laws. “His future is under threat, and so are my grandchildren’s,” he said. One of the most repeated criticisms of the opposition to the Biden government is precisely its management of the coronavirus crisis
Trump’s coup
It is also true that Donald Trump has largely capitalized on the campaign and turning it into a personal matter has made an important part of Republicanism uncomfortable. In fact, the tycoon communicated to the party leadership his desire to make a splash and announce his candidacy for the presidency yesterday, on the last day of the campaign, during his closing rally in Ohio. Republican leaders had to make real efforts to convince Trump to wait until after the election in tense hours in which some advisers were for and others against the initiative. In the end, the former president contented himself with announcing that on November 15 he will make “a very important announcement” from his Mar-a-Lago mansion. “We don’t want anything to detract from the importance of tomorrow’s event,” he added.
Mindful of the polls, Trump spent his last rally haranguing the masses to deliver “a humiliating rebuke to the radical left in this election,” he said. The Republicans, to a certain extent, have had it somewhat easier by highlighting the errors and problems of these two years of the Biden administration: from the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan to the increase in fuel prices, the “soft position” with immigration and the no results against crime. Hardly any of Biden’s promises in this field have been carried out and murders and robberies are growing nonstop, with a 24% increase in crimes compared to last year.
On top of its plans to hire 100,000 new police officers, the announcement of the closure of the store of a prestigious sportswear brand in San Francisco with the poster ‘The city of chaos’ has been more viral on the networks. As a result of unemployment after the long coronavirus epidemic and the galloping crisis, dozens of businesses – from Louis Vuitton to Zara or the Walgreens pharmacy chain – have suffered assaults in this capital, where robberies without violence and with loot below 950 euros are classified as misdemeanors. There have been cases of thieves entering stores in broad daylight with garbage bags that they calmly fill with items before the impassive gaze of employees and security guards.
Donald Trump fired the Republican campaign in Ohio /
Trump also resorted in Ohio to his usual catalog of insults to describe Nanci Pelosi, the Democratic president of the House, as an “animal” who has tried to ruin his political career. Precisely, Monday was also a night of announcements for the veteran institutional leader. In an interview, Pelosi hinted that, if her party loses the House, she will think about her continuation in politics, especially after the serious assault with a hammer recently suffered by her husband at the hands of a hothead.
In the midst of this climate, Americans are already voting. More than 43.5 million have done it in advance (in 2018 there were 39.1 million) and thousands of others have already gone from six in the morning (noon in Spain) to the open polling stations in Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana , Maine, New Jersey, New York and Virginia. Given the geographical breadth of the country, the first polls will close at six in the afternoon (midnight in Spain) and the last ones will close at one in the morning (US time) in the Aleutian Islands.
Turnout is not yet predictable. In the US, voters must register in advance, but they can do so in advance or at the same time they cast their vote today. There is a disparity of criteria in this matter, which has given rise to dozens of judicial appeals. In Delaware, for example, a judge has ruled that instant registration and postal voting are unconstitutional, while in Virginia this system is being used for the first time. In Florida, the new ordinances of the state government have also installed obstacles to the traditional operation of the electoral day. In any case, the United States votes today with the feeling that, above a group of representatives, its old democratic foundations are at stake.
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