Dina Mahmoud (London)
It may seem that the most pressing question now, in the corridors of political and military circles in the West, is the date when the curtain might come down on the Ukrainian crisis, which casts grave consequences on the situation in the whole world.
Recently, finding an answer to this question has become more important, as leaders on both sides continue to make statements that suggest that they are not in a hurry to put an end to the battles, even if they do not mind crystallizing a settlement that would end the armed confrontations. The current facts do not indicate that we are facing a conflict that is approaching its end, in light of the continuation of the battles on some fronts.
At a time when the Ukrainian army is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive, in the next April or May, the Russian forces began, weeks ago, to escalate their attacks already.
In light of this complex situation, Western analysts warn that the crisis may be on the brink of turning into a “long-term impasse”, for which everyone is paying a heavy price, and it is difficult for the various involved in it to get out of it, without incurring heavy losses, as a result of waiting The two sides of the confrontation, for the future developments of the fighting, before making any decisions regarding the settlement.
Analysts quoted Western official sources as saying that the current conflict in Ukraine may witness a chaotic escalation, before any chances of containing it loom on the horizon, especially with the demand of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government for the need to restore Crimea, noting that the Kiev government must, Do not overlook the possibility of a decline in Western support for it, if the bill of losses increases.
In remarks published by the widely circulated British magazine “The New Statesman”, veteran analyst Lawrence Friedman said that there are expectations that efforts to contain the crisis will lead to a “interim settlement”. While such a settlement may lead to an unstable, but permanent peace between Moscow and Kiev at the same time, there are fears that any temporary cease-fire will lead to the emergence of a situation similar to the one that has existed between the two Koreas since the armistice that ended the war in The Korean Peninsula, seven decades ago.
Many believe that the armistice between the two parts of Korea is always a prelude to the outbreak of war between them again, which is what observers of the Ukrainian crisis fear, who warn of a repeat of this scenario, by stopping the current confrontations, without reaching a comprehensive peace agreement.
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