The Popular Party would win the regional elections on March 28 in the Region of Murcia with almost 39% of the votes and between 19 and 20 deputies in the Regional Assembly, which would add more seats than the whole of the left.
This is confirmed by the Barometer of the Demoscopic Studies Observatory of the San Antonio Catholic University (UCAM). The survey consists of 800 interviews, conducted between May 3 and 12. For a confidence level of 95.45% (two sigmas), and for P=Q, the real error for the whole sample is: +/- 3.54%. The results are very similar to those of the GAD3 survey for LA VERDAD and also foresee the entry of Movimiento Ciudadano in the Assembly.
The popular ones would be the first political force on 28-M, with an estimated vote of 38.9%, 6.4 points more than in the 2019 elections, and with 19 secured deputies and the possibility of reaching number 20, which They dispute with the socialists. López Miras would have at least 3 seats more than 4 years ago, and according to the authors of the study he would be 1,500 votes from the fourth.
The PSRM would become the second party in number of votes and seats, with an estimate of 28.9%, ten points behind the PP. José Vélez’s candidacy would be in the range of 14-15 seats in the autonomous Parliament. Compared to 2019, the PSOE would drop 2.7 percentage points, losing at least 2 deputies.
In third position in the elections would be Vox, with an estimate of 15.6% and 8 deputies in the Assembly. As the rest of the polls predict, Abascal’s party would grow more than any other party and would double the representation it obtained in the 2019 elections.
For its part, Podemos-IU-Alianza Verde would obtain 5.6%, with two seats in the autonomous Chamber, one less than those predicted by both Cemop and GAD3, and several below those given by the pre-election barometer of the CIS, which placed the left-wing coalition in the range of 4-5 deputies. This would mean that he could not form his own parliamentary group and that the coordinator of Izquierda Unida, who is number 3 on the list, would not be elected.
The great novelty would be the entry of the regional MC (candidate promoted by Movimiento Ciudadano de Cartagena, José López’s party), which with 3.6% would exceed the minimum threshold required to access the distribution of seats and would achieve for the first time a seat in Parliament located on Paseo Alfonso XIII in Cartagena.
As in the GAD3 survey for LA VERDAD, Ciudadanos would be very far from the 3% (specifically, 1.7%) that open the doors of the Assembly, so they would lose their parliamentary representation. Neither would other forces such as Más Región-Verdes Equo, Valores or Por Mi Región win seats.
would increase abstention
The UCAM survey also predicts that participation will be 38.08% on 28-M, more than two points lower than 4 years ago. The study highlights that abstention is especially wide in the age segment of young people between 18 and 30 years old, with 45.7% responding that they do not intend to vote. In the range between 31 and 44 years, abstention stands at 37.7%, while it falls slightly in the following age ranges, 34.1% in that of 45 and 64 years, and 34, 2% among those over 65.
The voters of the Popular Party are concentrated mainly in those over 45 years of age, like the supporters of the PSOE, although the PP increases them even more than 65 and over. Vox, for its part, obtains its best results in middle-aged people, between 31 and 44 years old, capturing 11.3% of the votes in this segment, followed by the youngest (18 to 30 years old), where he monopolizes 10.3% of the voters.
Podemos-IU and MC Regional have their main niche of votes in young people between 18 and 30 years old, monopolizing 5.1% and 3.4% of the total respectively.
leader assessment
The survey also includes an assessment of regional leaders. They all fail. Fernando López Miras (PP) would be the leader with the highest degree of knowledge (91.8%) and the best grade, with 4.9. For his part, the PSRM candidate, José Vélez, is known by 68.4% (more than in Cemop and the CIS) and 4.5.
Degree of knowledge of political leaders (%)
Degree of knowledge of political leaders (%)
Degree of knowledge of political leaders (%)
The Vox candidate, José Ángel Antelo, is identified by 45.1% of respondents, with an average score of 4, while María Marín (Podemos-IU-AV) achieves a degree of knowledge of 44.2% and a note average of 4.1.
The least known are the candidates for Ciudadanos, María José Ros Olivo (38.5%), and for Más Región-Verdes Equo, Helena Vidal (28.2%). The first gets a note of 3.6, while the second has a 4.2.
possible pacts
If the results of the UCAM Barometer are produced on 28-M, the PP would meet its objective of adding more seats than PSOE and Podemos-IU together, which would make it the only possible option to form a government. He could try for the Executive alone, with parliamentary support from Vox, or join in a coalition with those of Abascal, forming a government that would have 28 seats, 5 above the absolute number.
The survey asks citizens about their agreement preferences. 25% answered that they would welcome a PP-Vox coalition, while 14.3% answered that they would like a PSOE-Podemos IU-Mas Región Verdes Equo alliance. There is still 13.9% who long for the times when PP and Ciudadanos were partners and would bet that this formula be repeated.
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