The polls predict that a coalition Executive of Social Democrats and Greens will emerge from tomorrow’s elections in the German state
The energy crisis and the rising cost of living due to high inflation have centered the electoral campaign for tomorrow’s legislative elections in the German federal state of Lower Saxony. These are national issues that have concerned the public since the war broke out and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The problems of the northern Germanic region have practically lacked interest for the local electorate in the last elections of the year that are held in this country and that are considered a barometer to measure the popularity of the government coalition led in Berlin by the federal chancellor , the social democrat Olaf Scholz, together with his green and liberal partners.
The polls are in their favour. Everyone predicts a victory for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and its candidate, the current prime minister of the second largest region in Germany after Bavaria, Stephan Weil, who has been in power for eight years and aspires to repeat another term. The most recent poll prepared for the weekly ‘Der Spiegel’ by the Civey institute grants the SPD 33% of the vote, while the conservatives of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) would obtain 27%, the Greens 17%, the ultra-nationalists of Alternative for Germany (AfD) 10%, the liberals (FDP) 5% and The Left only 4%, which would leave it out of the regional chamber in Hanover by not exceeding the 5% barrier. The Liberals are in turn on the tightrope and could be excluded from that parliament.
If these results are confirmed, the great coalition of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats that currently governs the State, headquarters of large industries such as the Volkswagen automobile consortium, would have come to an end. Weil and the SPD have announced in advance that their interest is to negotiate a new alliance with the ecologists and, if their support is necessary, also with the liberals in order to repeat the tripartite that directs the country’s plans from Berlin. With a population overwhelmed by energy problems and rising prices, Weil has known how to present himself as an expert crisis manager with a privileged direct line to the federal chancellor.
energy axis
Weil wants to turn Lower Saxony into Germany’s energy hub, even though he has been forced to abandon positions he previously defended. Since, in addition to promoting the construction of solar plants and wind farms, on the North Sea coast not only terminals for the reception of liquefied gas by sea are being erected at a forced pace, but the possibility of extracting gas from pockets detected under the seabed. As for the relief of citizens from the growing energy burden, Weil has proposed a regional aid program worth 970 million euros that will be financed with the surplus of tax revenues and that will complement the one announced by the federal government.
To deal with the energy crisis, his main electoral rival, the conservative Bernd Althusmann, is even in favor of keeping the last atomic plant in the region in operation, which is expected to be turned off at the end of the year. The duel between Althusmann and Weil already took place in the previous elections of 2017. If Weil prevails again, it could surpass the record of more than 14 years of government in Lower Saxony of Hans Albrecht, the father of the current president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. The current prime minister clearly wins over his conservative rival in popularity, perhaps because of his calm and conciliatory presence, as well as his long experience in government.
From Berlin, the central of the Social Democrats observes the development of the elections in Lower Saxony with appreciable relaxation and the certainty of an announced victory. Nobody has the idea to think out loud about a possible defeat. If it occurs, the shock would undoubtedly be felt in the German capital, where some frustration reigns in the SPD due to the loss of popularity of the formation in the polls at the national level. But just as dangerous for peace in the tripartite that governs the country would be a failure of the FDP and its possible departure from the Hanover Parliament. This would raise the danger of a confrontation between the Greens and Liberals within the coalition, especially if the energy crisis worsens in winter and an agreement must be reached to take new measures to relieve citizens.
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