The risks of a regional war with Israel after the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria

Teheran promised this Monday to respond “decisively” to the bombing in which Israel He destroyed an annex of the Iranian consulate in Syria which caused at least eight deaths, among them seven senior commanders of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, one of the key elite bodies of the Persian country. This tension between Israel and Iran is a new episode in the long saga of rivalries between both countries and which, according to analysts, has the potential to drag the Middle East into regional escalation.

The Iranian ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, who was unharmed, assured on state television that the attack was carried out with “F-35 fighter jets and six missiles.” For its part, the Syrian Ministry of Defense stated that the missiles, launched from the Golan Heights, a territory occupied by Israel, destroyed the adjacent building of the diplomatic headquarters, “killing everyone inside.”

The Revolutionary Guards condemned the attack and in a statement confirmed that the dead included Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, two senior commanders of the Quds Force – the foreign operations arm of the elite corps. “The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its right to take countermeasures, and will decide on the type of reaction and punishment of the aggressor,” said a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Naser Kananí.

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However, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), a London-based NGO with a wide network of informants in Syria, said the balance It can reach up to eleven dead“Eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese, all of them combatants, no civilians,” Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the OSDH, told AFP.

The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its right to take countermeasures, and will decide on the type of reaction and punishment of the aggressor.

Asked about Israel's responsibility for the attack, Israeli army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagariresponded that “did not comment on the information in the foreign press”. The episode, in any case, is an unprecedented attack against an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria, where Iran and its allies – enemies of Israel – support the Syrian government of Bashar al Assad.

The Syrian Foreign Minister, Faisal al Miqdad, conveyed Syria's support for Iran after the attack on Monday in a call to his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, to whom he said that this bombing is a consequence of Israel's “miserable failure” in the war against the Palestinian people of the Gaza Strip and reiterated that the Jewish State “will not be able to influence relations between Iran and Syria.”

The Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel are bitter enemiespose a mutual existential threat, compete for regional hegemony and maintain a covert war with cyberattacks, assassinations and sabotage.

Now, Analysts predict that Iran will counterattack in “unexpected” ways, although at the moment it is still too early to determine when and how it will do so. Frank Gardner, security affairs correspondent for the British network BBCremember that in 2020, when the United States assassinated the general of the Revolutionary Guard with a drone, Qasei Soleimania “catastrophic response from Iran” was expected.

It is difficult to assess what the long-term effect of Monday's attack on Damascus will be, but Iran will most likely take its time to respond and quite possibly counterattack in unexpected ways.

“But as it turned out, it had an effect that de-escalated the operations of the Revolutionary Guard after the elimination of its most militarily competent agent in the Middle East. There are also cases where there was an escalation. “It is difficult to assess what the long-term effect of Monday's attack on Damascus will be, but Iran will most likely take its time to respond and very possibly counterattack in unexpected ways,” the analyst explains.

The truth is that this new attack is a reminder that since War broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7 in the Gaza Strip Fears have been growing that the conflict will take on a regional dimension, as Israel has intensified attacks against other Iranian-backed groups. In fact, Israel also carries out daily attacks against positions of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In fact, Israel's chief of staff approved this Monday plans for the northern command, deployed on the northern border with Lebanon, to continue the ground and air offensive against Hezbollah militiamen. The announcement comes after repeated attacks by Hezbollah against northern Israel.

“In other words, this conflict must be seen as part of a broader confrontation between Israel and Iran. “So if it is confirmed that this attack on a senior Iranian commander in Damascus was launched by Israel, then it would mark an escalation of that wider conflict and raise new fears of a devastating regional war,” said James Landale, BBC diplomatic correspondent.

For now, the United States, Israel's main ally, has refrained from commenting on the events. At a press conference in Washington, Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesman, said they continue to “gather” information about who is really behind the attack, but they do not yet have confirmation.

In other words, this conflict must be seen as part of a broader confrontation between Israel and Iran.

but whiles Iran points to Israel as responsible for the attack on the consulate in Damascus, the Israelis blamed the Iranians for having orchestrated a drone attack from Iraq, which hit a naval base building in the port of Eilat, southern Hebrew State, on Monday. The incident did not leave any dead.

“This is a very serious incident,” said military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari at a press conference today, assuring that the unmanned object was “manufactured in Iran” and the attack was also directed by this power.

The political crisis in Israel begins to shake Netanyahu more and more

In the midst of this escalation of tensions with Iran, but especially with the war in Gaza as a backdrop, the streets of Israeli Parliament (Knesset) woke up this Monday full of tents with people who camped around the headquarters after protesting during the night of Sunday against the government of the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Nearly 100,000 people gathered in Jerusalem to call for an agreement that allows the return of the hostages kidnapped in the Gaza Strip and, in particular, Netanyahu's departure from office.

Sunday's demonstration was the largest since the start of the war in Gaza and shows the fatigue of Israeli sectors to the government's handling of the conflict, especially because the families of the hostages are still waiting for the return of their loved ones.

For the first time, the anti-government protests were also joined by relatives of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, who demanded an agreement that facilitates the release of the 130 captives who still remain in the enclave.

“If you can't bring them back, step aside, leave. We need someone in your place who can,” said the daughter of Hanna Katzir, one of the hostages released during the agreed seven-day truce during the protest. between Israel and Hamas last November, in statements collected by the Efe agency.

If you can't bring them back, step aside, leave. We need someone in his place who can do it.

Along with these people who are protesting, there is also another group who demonstrate against the exemption from military service for ultraorthodox jewsa measure that has been in force in the country since 1948 at the time David Ben-Gurion, but which comes to an end this April 1 after years of postponement. This other issue divides society and constitutes a new political dilemma that threatens, along with the conflict in Gaza, to destabilize the coalition of Netanyahu government.

Initially, the exemption from military service was valid for 400 young people, but currently it benefits 66,000 men between 18 and 26 years old. The law was annulled in 2012 by the Supreme Court, which demanded a new rule, but successive governments and ultra-Orthodox parties have reached temporary agreements without agreeing on an end to this preferential treatment.

Over the years, criticism has grown in Israeli society, where secular parties and NGOs, invoking the principle of equality, turned to the Supreme Court to demand the immediate recruitment of ultra-orthodox.

Netanyahu's government coalition is based in part on an alliance with the two large ultra-Orthodox parties, Shass and United Torah Judaism, which are fiercely opposed to the recruitment of ultra-Orthodox Jews (haredim, in Hebrew). His departure would bring down the coalition.

What will happen starting Monday with the ultra-Orthodox is the big question? In theory, these young people could be called up for military service, explains Yair Ettinger, an expert in religious affairs, to public television Kan 11. “But the police are not going to come to arrest them because declaring them deserters takes time and the court must rule on this.” issue in May,” he added.

But Ettinger considers the option of new elections provoked by the ultra-Orthodox unlikely, given that “this government is the most favorable to the interests of the Haredim.” Even in May 2023, the government approved an unprecedented budget of almost $1 billion (3.7 billion shekels) for Talmudic schools.

The Israeli veto of Al Jazeera

And while outside the Knesset they protested against Netanyahu, the Parliament passed a law that banned the Qatari channel Al Jazeera in Israel.

“The terrorist channel Al Jazeera will stop broadcasting in Israel. “I intend to act immediately in accordance with the new law to put an end to the channel's activities,” Netanyahu wrote on the social network X.

The United States, a close ally of Israel, expressed concern. “If true, a measure like this is worrying,” White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said in Washington.

The new law, approved by 70 votes in favor and 10 against, allows the dissemination of content from the Qatari network to be prohibited and its offices in Israel to close. Netanyahu accused Al Jazeera of being “a Hamas propaganda organ and of having actively participated in the October 7 massacre.”

For its part, the network described N
etanyahu's statements as “dangerous and ridiculous lies.”

CARLOS JOSÉ REYES

INTERNATIONAL DEPUTY EDITOR

TIME