He Green partyexplained the Secretary of the Interior, Luisa María Alcaldethe explainer of the results of Sunday’s election, will have 74 deputies in the next legislaturewhich will become the second force in Congressunder Brunette. It will be left with two deputies above the PAN and will have 40 more than the PRI. Nothing bad. Compete partially in the elections – in a third of the country and 12% of the electoral districts – it was a good deal: the number of deputies which he achieved in 2021 and won 6 seats in the Senatewhere, if the votes he received in the district counts that began yesterday are confirmed, he will have 14.
He Green party was the big winner in the legislative electionsbecause he is the one who won the most proportionally, but it is A big lie. The greens are a artificial forceproduct of the mercenary identity that has distinguished them since their birth in 1986, willing to sell to the highest bidder in exchange of money in prerogatives, which with these results will increase by 100%. That’s a good part of their motivation, which makes them overlook any hint of modesty. He was an ally of Vicente Fox in 2000, by Enrique Peña Nieto in 2012, and has held two general elections as an unconditional Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Today, the Green Party It is the best case study of the real problem of Sunday’s election due to the consequences it has for the country and the virtual president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, in the short term. It’s about the call overrepresentation in Congress, whose limits were regulated at the federal level in 1996 and at the local level in 2014, so that in no case could the parties have a number of legislators greater than 8% of their vote. “This is a guideline that seeks to guarantee an elementary democratic principle, that all votes count equally,” Javier Martín Reyes and Juan Jesús Garza, researchers at the UNAM Legal Research Institute, wrote in Nexos in December 2020.
The overrepresentation, when it exceeds that maximum – the spirit of the limit is not to exceed it but to reduce it to zero -, as Reyes and Garza describe, it is a fraud on the Constitution. The large parties, for convenience and the possibility of expanding their benches – to be able to fulfill their commitments and develop electoral engineering that allows them electoral victories -, place candidacies under the colors of other parties, and the small ones, agree to give them the place to impose names, because it gives them seats and seats, as well as money.
They both win, but the citizens lose. The vote is equivalent to providing a mandate for the candidate to make decisions on one’s behalf, which is based on the political platform that was presented. In more earthly examples, there are grotesque cases such as that of Mario Delgado, who arrived in San Lázaro in 2018 for the PT – which, since it harmed him in the allocation of seats, he said he had never run for it -, from where he quickly jumped to be the coordinator of the Morena bench, and from there to the presidency of the party. Another case, Reyes and Garza recalled, occurred in the 2018 elections when the Encuentro Solidario Party, which did not win any electoral district and lost registration by not reaching 3% of the national vote, had 56 deputies who under their costume wore the Morena brand.
Overrepresentation is the debate of the day about Sunday’s elections and the reason for the most serious challenges, because it is estimated that the exceeding of the constitutional maximum by Morena, the Green Party and the PT is 18%, more than double the allowed at most by the Constitution. With the numbers released by the Mayor’s Secretary, researcher Reyes found that the overrepresentation of Morena is +8%, the Green +6% and the PT +5%, while the PAN, the PRI, the PRD and Movimiento Ciudadano, would be left with a negative representation of -3, -4, -2 and -6%, respectively.
This discussion that has been taking place in the General Council of the National Electoral Institute will reach the courts if, after the district count, the percentages that the Mayor sang in the National Palace are maintained.
The argument of the parties in power is that individually none of them exceed the constitutional maximum, so one of the scenarios in the opposition’s litigation strategy would have to be that the Electoral Court must consider them as a coalition, based on the agreement of coalition last March.
Another argument could be based on effective affiliation, which was the criterion of the challenge in the 2021 elections, so that seats are assigned based on which party the candidates belonged to before the coalition was signed. This criterion resolved the anomalies of overrepresentation in 2015, when the PRI and the Green, which had 40% of the votes, reached 50% of the seats in San Lázaro, which meant an exceedance of the limit of less than 2%. But it did not do so in 2018, when the PRI challenged the overrepresentation of the PES under the criterion that the vote should not be seen only as a unit of measurement, but as an integral part of the mandate based on the electoral platform.
The debate is technical but useful to resolve the existing distortion, expressed, for example, in that the green vote is lower than that of the PRI, but obtained much more seats than the tricolor. However, its resolution is fundamental for the country. If the Court ruled on the argument of effective affiliation, Morena would probably lose 13 to 16 deputies, which would be a greater number if the criterion that the allocation be made by coalition was applied. In both cases, what would be at risk is the qualified majority, which would overturn López Obrador’s plans for constitutional reforms. There is, of course, another option: for the Electoral Court to dismiss the challenges.
X: @rivapa
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