The macro state of oil with which the US would double the crude oil production of Saudi Arabia and Russia

An unexpected earthquake has shaken Canada. Weeks before even taking office as president of the United States, Donald Trump is bringing out his artillery against his northern neighbor. Seeking to undermine the current Liberal government, led by a Justin Trudeau who has already said he is throwing in the towel, and a more beneficial relationship in the future, Trump has hit hard. First, threatening a global tariff of 25% for Ottawa’s alleged lack of collaboration in border control and the fight against drug trafficking. Then, calling for Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. Although this scenario belongs to political fiction and could not be more remote, there is a region of Canada in which the separatist movement has a solid presence, to the point of being able to be favorable to Trump’s siren song. An approach between Alberta and the US, however it materializes, opens up two unprecedented scenarios: the US would become a ‘macro oil state’ that would make the entire world tremble (it would produce twice as much oil as Saudi Arabia and Russia) and ‘Central’ Canada would suffer a hemorrhage that could be lethal.

Political analysts are clear that Canada is not going to annex the United States in any way. On the one hand, Canada is itself a federal union of ten provinces and three territories that will not unite to form a single US state. On the other hand, there is not enough support for such a union: a recent poll concluded that only 13% of Canadians are in favor of joining the US. The great risk, points out a recent report by Capital Economics, is that some Canadian province with separatist impulses will be inclined to annexation with the United States. And the ideal candidate is the aforementioned Alberta. According to another survey, almost 40% of voters in the region prefer that they be their own country and the percentage of citizens in favor of joining the US is the highest than in any other territory in Canada.

Although the path to ending up as another US state by breaking away from Canada still seems remote, growing pressure will open the ground under Ottawa and, of course, Trump would intensify the pressure in his favor. The interests at stake are very great and all the actors involved know it. Among Albertans, the axiom prevails that they could get by without Canada, but the rest of Canada couldn’t get by without them. Ottawa is well aware of what it would lose. Alberta represents 11% of the country’s population, but 15% of its GDP and an even larger proportion of tax revenue federal.

The ‘black gold’ that flows from the tar sands

This position of strength for Alberta is a direct result of the great concentration of the country’s oil sector in the province, a real ‘candy’ for Trump’s ambitions. The eventual annexation would fulfill the ‘wettest’ dream of the next tenant of the White House: the total energy independence of the US. Although the US currently produces 13.4 million barrels of crude oil each day, consumption is close to 18 million barrels per day. With the annexation of Canada, the US would become self-sufficient. That is to say, I wouldn’t need the OPEC countries at all. Within Canada, Alberta is the key.

Alberta continues to consolidate itself as the epicenter of oil production in Canada, with figures that underline its importance in the global energy scenario. Approximately the 83% of crude oil production in Canada in 2022 it originated in Alberta, according to data from the US Department of Energy. And the momentum continues. According to the latest official data from the end of 2024, the province reached a historical record with a combined production of conventional crude oil and tar sands of 4.2 million barrels per day (b/d), according to data from the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). This mark represents a consistent year-over-year increase for nine consecutive years, a significant achievement in a highly competitive market.

Now add those 4.2 million barrels to the 13.4 million produced by the US. The result is a production of 17.6 million barrels, almost double the production of Saudi Arabia or Russia, which with the OPEC+ cuts has fallen below 9 million barrels per day. This macro state of oil would produce almost 20% of the global crude oil supply. It should be remembered that OPEC (made up of 13 large producers) controls around 30% of global supply. Without a doubt, this US plus Alberta formula would be a great counterweight.

The tar sands They have been the engine of this spectacular growth. In 2010, production from these sands was 1.6 million b/d. By July 2024, this figure exceeded 3.4 million b/d, a jump driven by investments in infrastructure and technology. According to a report by ATB Financial, “Crude oil production in Alberta has doubled in 14 years, thanks to the continued development of the tar sands. This demonstrates the province’s potential as a global energy leader.” The percentages from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) certify it: in 2022, the production of bituminous sands represented the 65% of the country’s total crude oil productionand conventional oil, offshore and tight oilthe remaining 35%.

The projections They are also optimistic. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that total Canadian crude oil production, which includes natural gas liquids (NGL), will increase to 5.6 million b/d in December 2025. Much of this growth will come from the oil sands and new production platforms such as MEG Energy’s Christina Lake and Cenovus’ Sunrise. “Tail sands and condensate production will be the main driver of Canadian crude oil supply growth over the next 18 months,” say S&P Global analysts.

The colossal pipeline to bring crude oil to the US

The inauguration of the pipeline expansion Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) Last spring has been key to consolidating this growth. This project, which added 590,000 b/d of capacity (up to 890,000 b/d), has not only improved market access for Canadian crude, but has also reduced the Western Canadian Select (WCS) discount to WTI, placing it in a range of $11-16 per barrel. Greg Stringham, former vice president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, noted that “TMX has opened new markets and strengthened the competitiveness of Canadian crude oil in Asia and the west coast of the United States.”

Growing demand from Asian markets is playing a crucial role in Alberta’s export strategy. Since the expanded TMX began operations in May 2024, exports have averaged 360,000 b/d, with destinations divided between Asia and the American west coast. Stringham highlighted that “Asian refiners are showing growing interest in Canadian heavy crude, especially from China, Taiwan and Japan, where price differentials favor these imports.”

In addition to the TMX, the Enbridge Mainline system It also plays a vital role in crude oil exports. This pipeline, with a capacity of 3 million b/d, transports crude oil from Edmonton to refineries in the US Midwest and the Gulf Coast. Enbridge spokesperson Gina Sutherland announced that “a possible expansion is being evaluated for 2026-2027, which would add 150,000 b/d of additional capacity.”

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