The Left and Macronists cling to the ‘cordon sanitaire’ in France to prevent Le Pen’s absolute majority

A Republican front, the French version of the cordon sanitaire against the far right, was re-formed on Tuesday to prevent Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) from obtaining an absolute majority of seats in Sunday’s legislative elections and forming a government. It is not as strong as it once was, however, and it is not certain that it will succeed. Le Pen, who has softened her programme and her image over the years, is no longer perceived as the threat she once was.

But in the elections in which the far right is closest to power, a good part of the political spectrum – not all, but the centre and the left – has reacted. A total of 218 candidates for deputy (from a list of 311) have given up running in the second round when in their districts they faced a triangular election, with three candidates. The aim was to concentrate the votes on the best placed candidate to beat the RN candidate.

The final number of withdrawals, which was announced at 6pm on Tuesday, represents more than two-thirds of the constituencies that had a second round with more than two candidates qualified. It is an indicator of the parties’ ability to compromise on their programmes and principles and support rivals for a greater good they consider: defeating the far right. And it could complicate Le Pen’s objectives.

There are 130 candidates from the left-wing coalition New Popular Front who have withdrawn in order to concentrate their votes on a centrist or moderate right-wing candidate. And 82 from the outgoing parliamentary majority, affiliated with President Emmanuel Macron, have withdrawn in favour of a left-wing candidate. This is less than on the left, but the number is considerable and responds to the call of the questioned Macron for “a long union that is clearly democratic and republican” against the extreme right.

In the Macronist camp, 16 candidates have preferred to continue campaigning, considering that their left-wing rival was as harmful to France as their far-right rival. However, the number of those who have dropped out in favour of the Republican front is considerable.

The question is whether voters on July 7 will follow the guidelines set by their party representatives. There will be 91 constituencies with a triangular final – and two others in which there will be four candidates – in which none has wanted to withdraw, so the Republican front will be incomplete.

In the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday, Le Pen’s RN won with 33.1%, followed by the New Popular Front with 28% and the Macronist Ensemble with 20%. The result makes the far right the favourite to be the force with the most deputies in the new National Assembly, but does not guarantee it an absolute majority of 289 seats.

If the Republican front works and voters concentrate their votes against the RN candidates, it could frustrate this absolute majority, which Le Pen says is necessary to implement her programme. Speaking to France Inter, the RN leader claimed a majority: “We cannot agree to go into government if we cannot act.” But she admitted that, on its own, her party might not reach 289 seats, and would then seek allies: “From the moment we have 270 deputies, we will need 19 more, and we will go to the others, and we will ask them if they are willing to participate in a new majority for a new policy.”

The Republican front came into use in the late 1980s at the height of the rise of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front and served to keep that party and its successor, the RN, out of power. It helped the conservative Jacques Chirac defeat Le Pen senior in the 2022 presidential election by collecting the left’s vote; and in 2017 and 2022, it helped the centrist Emmanuel Macron defeat Le Pen junior.

Over time, the party has weakened, as demonstrated by presidential elections in which a moderate candidate faced a far-right candidate. In 2002, Chirac beat Le Pen with 82% of the vote. In 2017, Macron beat his daughter with 66%. Five years later, the lead narrowed and he won with 58.5%. All indications are that fewer and fewer French people are willing to vote for a candidate other than their own in order to curb the far right.

The decision on whether to withdraw or not these less likely candidates has sparked intense debates among the parties in the presidential bloc. Some, like Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, urged: “Not a single vote should go to the National Rally.” But other Macronists believed that it was necessary to weigh up “case by case”, in each district, whether to withdraw or maintain the candidacies. Others, like Édouard Philippe, Macron’s former prime minister and aspiring successor, declared: “Not a single vote for the candidates of the RN or for those of La France Insoumise.” La France Insoumise (LFI) is the radical left party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Philippe, head of the moderate right-wing party Horizontes, authorized his candidates, with these words, to withdraw when there was, in addition to the RN, another socialist, ecologist or communist candidate in the triangular. But not from LFI, accused by the moderate The RN is a dangerous party for the Republic, and it is a dangerous party for the people of France, which is playing into the hands of anti-Semitism and fomenting chaos in Parliament and on the streets. The Minister of the Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, said: “The RN is a danger to the Republic. The LFI is a danger to the nation.” This is also the position of Les Républiques, the traditional right-wing party, which is now split in two: its president, Eric Ciotti, has already taken the step during the campaign of allying himself with Le Pen’s RN.

According to some projections, the high number of resignations and the concentration of votes against the extreme right could prevent the RN from obtaining an absolute majority. It would be a success for the Republican front, a test of its poor iron healthBut it is not clear that voters will follow the guidelines of the parties they voted for in the first round. In other words, that the republican front agreed between the parties will be extended to the electorate.

“I no longer believe in the Republican Front,” declared Louis Aliot, leader of the RN and mayor of Perpignan. “I was elected in Perpignan alone against everyone, left and right. The voters no longer respond to the slogans.”

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