Four days of offensive by the Islamist alliance Levant Liberation Organization and factions supported by Türkiye have been enough to expel the Army and the pro-Iranian militias allied to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assadfrom large areas of northwestern Syria, including the country’s second city, Aleppo.
The offensive led by the Islamist alliance – made up of the former affiliate of Al Qaeda in Syria, the former Nusra Front – has fulfilled its promises to “liberate” the northwest of the Arab country from Al Assad, whose Army has collapsed at a particularly delicate moment for the pro-Iranian militias that support him, such as the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
The air coverage provided by Russiathe main ally of Damascus and which intervenes in Syria Since 2015, it has not yet managed to stop the advance of the Islamists, who have taken control of Aleppo, the second largest city in the Arab country and which has not seen combat since 2016.
These are the main keys to the insurgent offensive, which has so far caused around 350 dead:
Truce in Lebanon and weakening of Hezbollah
The rebels began their offensive on November 27, coinciding with the entry into force of the truce in Lebanon after just over a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, an important ally in Syria that has been greatly weakened in the clashes. with the Israeli Army.
And in the last year, Israel has also attacked dozens of positions of the Shiite group in Syria, where it has a large presence and acts as the first line of defense for Al Assad’s troops.
According to the latest count of Syrian Observatory for Human RightsIsrael has launched some 160 strikes against Syrian territory since early 2024, killing around 60 Hezbollah members, while also destroying a large number of the group’s weapons depots and command centers.
A lightning breakthrough
In four days, the insurgents have achieved stunning military victories: not only have they seized the city of Aleppo, but they have also regained control of the entire province of Idlib and have even ventured into the north of the administrative demarcation of hamafurther south.
To do this, the rebels have used guerrilla tactics and have even blown themselves up with car bombs to break the first lines of defense of the pro-Iranian militias and Al Assad’s Army. In addition, they have a wide arsenal of rockets, heavy weapons and even assault drones.
However, its advance has not met with great resistance. Syrian soldiers even admitted Saturday to withdrawing from Aleppo, a move the military said was “temporary“and which has the objective of regrouping to carry out a counterattack, while confirming that Russian aviation is bombing the rebels.
This represents the biggest blow to Al Assad’s government since the beginning of 2020, when the Syrian Army regained control of several strategic areas of Idlib under the rule of insurgent factions since 2012, a year after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria.
Syrian insurgents, supported by Türkiye
The province of Idlib, controlled by the Levant Liberation Organization, also has the presence of the troops of Ankara who support groups opposed to the Al Assad government, with which Türkiye broke relations at the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011.
The Levant Liberation Organization is an Islamist group whose support is Türkiye and its main stronghold is in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib.
It wasn’t called that before. In 2011, when the popular revolts against Al Assad began within the framework of the so-called “Arab Spring“, was the Al Nusra Front, the branch of Al Qaeda in Syria.
His fervor islamist ideological At that time it did not resonate with many of the young people who rose up against Al Assad’s system. The Syrian government ended up arresting, executing, killing and expelling the original rebel movement.
It was not until 2016 when the group’s leader, Abu Mohamed al Jolani -who headed Al Nusra- decided to completely separate from Al Qaeda and split under the name of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (Organismo de Liberación del Levante, in Spanish). However, the Syrian Government continues to call it Al Nusra.
Approaching Turkey, Al Jolani has sought international legitimacy and a move away from the religious ideological extremism of Al Qaeda, which had also created friction between the myriad factions operating in Idlib.
In this new coalition, along with Al Jolani, other armed movements operate such as Sultan Murad, or Yeish al Izzasupported by Ankara.
However, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has assured that his country is not involved in the offensive and that his country will not launch “any action that could trigger a new wave of migration.”
“Turkey is not intervening in the fighting taking place in Aleppo. Precautions are being taken. We will not launch any action that could trigger a new wave of migration,” the Turkish Foreign Minister said on Saturday, quoted by the newspaper Hürriyet.
In fact, the offensive takes place at a time when Türkiye seeks to restore relations with Damascusbut Al Assad requests as a condition Ankara’s troops from northern Syria and the end of its support for opposition groups that his Government and Russia describe as “terrorists.”
The operation that began last Wednesday, called “Deterrence of Aggression”, is the most violent since 2020, and has been carried out by a coalition called “Military Operations Command led by the Levant Liberation Organization that has a common objective: defeat the Syrian Government of Bashar al Assad and recover the areas lost during the battles of the last decade.
Syria, supported by Russia and Iran
On the other side of the coin is the Syrian Government, which has been surprised by the speed of this offensive.
With a weak Army, Al Assad had no choice to survive in 2015 but to ask for Russian intervention in the conflict.
The price to pay was to open the door to Russia in the Mediterranean Sea, where it has its military bases. Their intervention has caused thousands of deaths, including civilians.
Now, it is the actor that is supporting Damascus the most with the launch of air strikes and defense on the ground.
Al Assad has other great supporters: Iran and its main ally, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. This, in fact, was responsible for liquidating the opposition on the ground in the battle of Aleppo in 2015although now its capabilities are greatly reduced after Israel’s war in Lebanon.
Unlike the previous decade, Al Assad now has the support of the community of arab countries after being readmitted to the Arab League in 2023, but that they would hardly enter the direct battle against the insurgents.
Kurds, supported by the United States
Another piece of this puzzle is the Syrian Kurdishwho run an administration in northern and northeastern Syria – separate from the Syrian Government – and are supported by the United States.
The Democratic Syrian Forces (FSD) – an umbrella led by Kurds but which also brings together Arab groups – have become an important actor in this contest because they have the Turks and the insurgent movements they support as enemies.
During Turkey’s last offensive in northeastern Syria against the Kurds in 2019, the latter asked for help on the ground from the Syrian Army – with whom it is also at odds – and Russia to stop the conflict, which led to a high-level agreement. the Turkish-Russian fire.
The United States has also disassociated itself from this new battle and has said that it “has nothing to do with this offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a designated terrorist organization.”
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