The first major hurricane of the year to make landfall in Mexico has confirmed forecasts that predicted a particularly intense season in the Atlantic. After forming in late June, Beryl The storm left a trail of destruction in northern Venezuela, as well as hitting Grenada and other Caribbean islands before heading towards Mexico. The tropical cyclone has now left Jamaica behind and is advancing towards the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of up to 215 kilometres per hour. With the memory of Otis and the wounds it caused in Guerrero still fresh in the minds of the public, Beryl It has not arrived alone: along with it, a whirlwind of misinformation and hoaxes has set off alarms in coastal cities and fueled panic buying in Quintana Roo awaiting its impact, expected in the early hours of Friday.
Where and when will the hurricane hit? Beryl in Mexico?
According to the most recent forecast from the National Meteorological Service (SMN), the most likely scenario is that Beryl landfall in the early hours of Friday, July 5 in Quintana Roo, somewhere in a strip that runs from Tulum to Felipe Carrillo Puerto. “The intensity with which it could arrive varies and the tendency is being observed for it to be a little stronger than what was predicted. Now the majority of the models indicate that instead of category 1, it could be category 2,” explains José Martín Cortés Aguilar, operational meteorologist of the specialized site Meteored and expert in atmospheric sciences.
The forecast indicates that Beryl The hurricane will continue to advance over the Caribbean Sea as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane and will continue to lose strength due to the shearing winds in the region before its final approach to Mexico. A key sign of significant weakening of a hurricane is the loss of the eye in satellite images, explains José Martín to this newspaper. “Since Tuesday evening and Wednesday, the eye is no longer visible, it is becoming covered in clouds because the intensity of the system continues to decrease.”
This is what damage from a Category 2 hurricane looks like
While it is impossible to accurately predict the damage that a tropical cyclone will cause in a given region, the Saffir-Simpson scale, which classifies hurricanes based on wind speed and potential damage, indicates that a Category 2 cyclone with maximum winds of 177 kilometers per hour (the current estimate is that Beryl A hurricane of this magnitude (with winds of 155 to 160 kilometers per hour) can cause extensive damage to unprotected windows and roofs, as well as cracking masonry walls. Regarding electricity, a hurricane of this magnitude can often damage power lines and cause blackouts for days. Nearby ports can also be flooded and some moorings can be broken. Public facilities such as signs, fences and awnings can also be totally damaged, while some trees may snap and fall.
Where will it make landfall? Beryl for the second time?
Once Beryl After the storm became a hurricane, the SMN’s first forecast estimated that the tropical cyclone would make landfall twice in Mexico: a first impact on the Yucatan peninsula early Friday morning; and another next Sunday, between the states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas. Although the updated forecast maintains the hypothesis of a first impact in Quintana Roo, Cortés Aguilar affirms that the probability of it making landfall for a second time has now shifted north and extends across the Gulf of Mexico, even beyond national territory: “From the scenarios [para un segundo impacto] “There are Veracruz, Tamaulipas, Texas and Louisiana,” he explains, emphasizing uncertainty as a key factor when predicting the trajectory of this type of phenomenon. “For now, it is not expected to be in Veracruz, it is increasingly likely that it will be in north-central Tamaulipas or south-central Texas where the system could make landfall on Sunday.”
How common is it for a hurricane to make landfall twice?
While one of the most notable features of Beryl In their trajectory, hurricanes that make landfall more than once on islands or peninsulas and regain strength upon returning to sea are far from being peculiar phenomena. The expert mentions Gilberto (1988), one of the deadliest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, and Grace (2021) as two examples of phenomena that made landfall at least twice in Mexico. While Gilberto hit Cozumel as a category 5 and crossed the Yucatan peninsula to make landfall for the second time in Tamaulipas, leaving more than 200 deaths in national territory and devastating effects in Mérida and Monterrey; Grace made landfall in Tulum (Quintana Roo) as a category 1 and intensified during its passage through the Gulf of Mexico, where it hit Tecolutla (Veracruz) becoming a category 3 hurricane.
A record-breaking hurricane
The early formation of Beryl and its evolution to category 5 at the very beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November, has astonished the scientific community; however, it is not the most intense tropical cyclone in history, not even for the Atlantic basin. “The fact that it has reached that intensity so early is not common, it is very rare, that is why it is a record,” explains Cortés Aguilar. According to the records of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA, for its acronym in English), the first hurricanes that exceed category 3 begin to form between August and September. Hence the record of precocity of the phenomenon in question.
“I have seen some media outlets saying that it is the worst hurricane in history, that will attract attention, but that is incorrect information. It is only because of how early it formed and the intensity it had at the end of June and the beginning of July,” he says, while pointing out that its appearance, far from worsening the forecast, confirms the number of tropical cyclones expected for the Atlantic, a figure that, according to the National Meteorological System, ranges between 20 to 23 tropical cyclones, of which about four or five could reach a category 3 or higher and at least five could impact the country’s coasts.
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