The government that comes out of the elections must seek solutions to the enormous population collapse in the country, which will lose five million inhabitants by 2050
The Italians are in danger of extinction. The low birth rate, together with an aging population and the lower capacity to attract immigrants compared to other European countries, will cause Italy to reduce its population by 5 million in 2050. It will thus go from just over 59 million today to 54 million by mid-century, which could drop to 47 million by 2070 if current trends continue, according to official forecasts. The pernicious economic and social effects of this reduction in the number of inhabitants, which experts have already suspected for years but which has accelerated with the pandemic, have led to the accumulation of voices from important personalities who warn of the demographic debacle that seems wait for Italy.
The laments of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, and Pope Francis, who had already spoken out repeatedly about this problem, were recently joined by even Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX. Commenting on social networks on the drop in the birth rate that has been recorded since the 1960s in Italy, where last year there were 400,000 births, a figure not seen since World War II, Musk stated that the country “will be left without people if this trend continues. The American billionaire considered that, although it is hardly talked about, the “biggest problem that the world will face in 20 years is the collapse of the population.”
In its economic reactivation plan after the pandemic, valued at 221.5 billion euros, largely financed by the European Union, the outgoing government of Mario Draghi included various aid and tax exemptions to encourage young families to have children. The parties that are running for the general elections next Sunday have also made promises along the same lines, although relegating this issue to one of the secondary issues of the campaign. The measures seem insufficient in a country where raising a child up to the age of 18 costs an average of 175,000 euros, according to forecasts by the Federconsumatori association. It is a real fortune for the young generations, weighed down by unemployment, job insecurity and low wages. Unlike other European nations such as France or Germany, the measures to reconcile parenting with work are laughable, so Italian families are forced to rely on grandparents, if they have them and live nearby, to help them with the little ones. .
“There is a very strong desire for motherhood that cannot be satisfied. Couples would like to have two children, but we are stuck at 1.25 children per woman because the context does not allow it,” explains Marco Marsili, an expert at the Italian Statistical Institute (Istat). “With motherhood something similar happens to what happens with investors: they invest when they have good prospects, but if there is a general picture of uncertainty, they do not do it or they delay the decision. It’s the same with couples.”
Impact on GDP
Among the consequences of the demographic collapse, this researcher highlights the impact that the GDP will suffer. This indicator has been falling for years in Italy more strongly than in other European countries in recessionary phases of the economy, while it grows more weakly in times of general expansion. “For a declining population it is almost impossible to maintain the same level of GDP. It would be necessary for there to be an increase in productivity per capita to counteract the decrease in the number of inhabitants”, says Marsili. Looking ahead to 2050, aging will be another serious problem, since the working-age population will mean little more than 50% of the total, compared to two thirds now. The ratio between those over 65 and those under 14 will also be 3 to 1.
Despite these bad omens, the Istat expert refuses to speak of a ‘demographic bomb’ and asks that the “necessary conditions” be created to adapt to the new situation. “You have to prepare. First we must make it easier for young people to have children. They are the future », he points out. He also advocates doubling the number of immigrants who arrive in Italy each year and promoting their social and labor integration, although always bearing in mind that both this variable and a possible rise in the birth rate would only partially mitigate a trend that is unstoppable.
“Italy is a pioneering country from a demographic point of view due to its high level of life expectancy, low birth rate, discreet immigration and strong aging. Spain is in a similar situation and other countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom will soon follow in its footsteps », says Marsili, who considers that his nation is at the forefront of the demographic trends that govern the planet today. “The United Nations no longer foresees that the world population will continue to grow at an exponential rate, as we have known until today. We begin to glimpse a scenario in which in 2100 the world population begins to decline.
Meloni advocates rethinking the question of national sovereignty without leaving the EU
The leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, Giorgia Meloni, defended this Sunday opening a debate on the question of national sovereignty at a European level, although without necessarily leaving the EU.
«That of sovereignty is a debate that we must raise without having to say that we are leaving the European Union. The topic is relevant. It is not a question of enmity with Europe, but of better organizing the defense of the national interest against Europe,” Meloni said in an interview with the Rai 3 network.
“Because we see the price of gas skyrocketing while other countries defend their national interests,” Meloni said in reference to the rise in the price of Russian gas, according to the Italian press.
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