The International Monetary Fund made public this Friday its economic outlook for 2025, in which the entity has corrected upwards the estimate of Spain’s GDP expansion for this year compared to its October forecasts. It raises it by 0.2% and expects it to close 2025 with a growth of 2.3%. However, it maintains the GDP growth for 2026 stable, at 1.8% and estimates that it closed 2024 with a rebound of 3.1%.
The organization maintains that the global growth will be 3.3% for this year and next, a figure that aligns with the data released last October, and which pointed to a rebound of 3.2% in both cases. The entity led by Kristalina Georgieva has revised upwards the estimates of the evolution of the US economy, which offsets the downward calculation of the growth of other countries.
In the case of the euro zone, the entity estimates that growth in 2025 will be slower than expected in October. The organization has cut the previous forecast by 0.2% and places the GDP expansion for this year at 1%, a situation that is mainly affected by geopolitical tensions. By 2026, eurozone GDP will expand by 1.4%, accompanied by stronger domestic demand, more favorable financial conditions, improved confidence and reduced uncertainty.
For the United States, the IMF estimates a growth of 2.7% for this year, half a percentage point above its forecasts from last October. A correction that responds to the strength of the labor market or the boost in investment and is supported by a less restrictive monetary policy and favorable financial conditions. The estimate for 2026 is also corrected one tenth upwards, to 2.1%.
For the rest of the advanced economies, the analysis points to a struggle between the recovery of real incomes that helps boost consumption and, on the other hand, that possible trade tensions cause investment to remain at moderate levels.
In the case of emerging and developing economies, the IMF forecasts that growth in 2025 and 2026 will be similar to that of 2024. The entity revises slightly upwards Beijing’s growth estimate, 0.1%, and places it at 4.6% for this year. The package of fiscal measures announced last November is a catalyst for this upward calculation that will offset the negative effects on the investment side derived from trade tensions and the real estate market.
In 2026, the forecast indicates that the Asian giant’s GDP will remain at stable growth levels, which point to 4.5%, with an eye on less uncertainty derived from trade policy and the increase in the retirement age.
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