Although the week began in favor of the US stock markets with a new rally of technology companies, Europe takes the lead against the falls on Wall Street. The increases in European indices double the increases in their American counterparts in this first full trading week of 2025. These days the market has been marked by sales in fixed income, which has seen an increase in its returns due to the strength of employment in the United States, as indicated by various data during the week. Although the increases in the Old Continent amount to 2% in the weekly balance, Ibex 35 remains behind, although in positive territory, since it added 0.59% to its price in the last five days and managed to close around 11,720 points.
On the other side of the Atlantic, investors have been especially attentive to the employment data in the region that has been published throughout the week, looking for signs of economic weakness in the United States, and with this the Federal Reserve takes a stance again dovish of interest rates.
But the figures have shown the opposite, especially this Friday when the final data for December were published, the month in which non-agricultural employment reached 256,000 non-agricultural payrolls, 55% above the 165,000 expected. This shows the health not only of employment, but of the US economy, although it also increases the chances that inflation will continue to rise in the region, limitating the margin of action of the Fed regarding its monetary policy. Therefore, the market speculates that another drop in the price of money will not arrive until the summer.
Given this limitation on expectations of rate cuts due to inflationary pressure, which is also worrying due to Donald Trump’s return to the White House due to his promises of tariffs, fixed income has not taken long to see its returns rise rapidly. In this last session, the profitability of the 30-year American bond has exceeded 5%while the T-Note went up to reach 4.75% at the closure of the European market. Due to contagion, the 10-year Spanish bond also has an increase in its profitability; now its yield rises to 3.2%.
US equities were full of falls in the session on Friday. At the close of the European market, the price was completely colored of redwith the main Wall Street indices accumulating weekly losses. The Nasdaq 100 fell up to 2.7% this weekwhich had one less day for the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, the country’s benchmark, the S&P 500, fell 2%. Both main references are in negative territory at an annual level, well below the European ones. The technological index shows a decrease of 0.6% in 2025, while the selective of the 500 firms falls one 1%.
Despite having set the tone with their rises, European stock markets also corrected their prices during the day on Friday, infected by their counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic. Even so, they managed to score on a weekly level, with increases of around 2%. The Milan stock exchange has taken the lead on the continent, both on a weekly and annual basis. The FTSE Mib manages to score a rise of 2.8% this weekwhat took the index to become the most bullish on the continent so far in 2025with an increase of 2.6% from the levels at which the year began.
Back with the weekly balance, the reference of the Old Continent, the EuroStoxx 50finally closed with an increase of 2.2% in this period. This Monday, the European stock market recorded its best session since November 2022, thanks to its rise of 2.3%. He Cac 40 French, the most punished index during 2024, achieves a rise of 2% this week, while the German Dax, the best European index last year, rises 1.6% weekly. The Ibex, as mentioned previously, rose 0.59%, in line with the rise of the FTSE 100 these days, of 0.3%.
Banking leads in the Spanish stock market
This week, the entire Spanish banking sector has the largest increases in the Spanish stock market due to the lower expectation of rate cuts. And the index of these firms, the Ibex Banks, has risen 5.3% in recent days. CaixaBank goes ahead and rises 8.8%, while Banco Sabadell and BBVA They occupy the second and third positions as the most bullish these days. Both banking entities increased their price by 8.4% and 7%, in a week in which the bank of Basque origin has reformulated its purchase offer to achieve its merger with the Catalan firm.
In contrast, the falls are caused by the Spanish electricity companies. Acciona Energía and Solaria lost 7.2% and 5.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Acciona falls 5.9% weekly. From Renta 4 they explain the rise in the banking sector “thanks to the new increases in IRRs [rentabilidades de los bonos]which, on the contrary, continue to penalize renewables and utilities“.
The change in rate expectations has given a new advantage to the US dollar, leading the exchange rate against the euro to fall to 1.023 green billslevels not seen since November 2022. Meanwhile, Brent surpassed $80 per barrel, levels not seen since October of last year due to the new wave of sanctions against Russia. Gold closed above 2,690 green bills.
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