As was the case with his predecessor, the new French Prime Minister, François Bayrou finds himself faced with a political equation that is practically impossible to solve. To build a stable government, it needs the approval of a majority of the political parties, an agreement between formations of different ideologies that commit to not voting a motion of censure against him.
In his first days in office, the new tenant of the Hôtel de Matignon has launched into a negotiation in search of that complex balance. However, the first conversations between Bayrou and the different political forces represented in the National Assembly, in which none of the three large blocs is close to the absolute majority of 289 deputies, are not giving the expected results.
Multicolored government
In his first television interview last Thursday, the prime minister expressed his desire for the composition of the new government to be announced “over the weekend; In any case before Christmas.” To strengthen an agreement between several parties, Bayrou has proposed forming a multicolored executive, bringing together personalities from the right and the left. “I think everyone has to take responsibility. “What awaits us is so difficult that we have to work together,” he said.
At the beginning of the week, Bayrou began a first round of individual interviews with the leaders of all the political forces represented in the Assembly (only the left-wing France Insoumise party declined the invitation), which he received in descending order of deputies. The far-right Marine Le Pen, representative of the party with the most seats, was the first guest at Matignon, where she attended accompanied by Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (RN, in French).
Le Pen’s first statements regarding Bayrou are following the same script as those made after Barnier’s appointment: there will be no motion of censure a priori. The RN leader said they were “listened to” by a prime minister with a “more positive approach” than his predecessor.
Although Bayrou has indicated that “he will not marginalize any party,” it seems that, unlike his predecessor, he is focusing on convincing the left, so as not to depend on Le Pen’s abstention. A strategy that did not work for Barnier, censured with the votes of the left and the extreme right after the presentation of the Social Security budget.
In fact, Le Pen’s party was not invited to the second phase of the consultations. On Thursday, a meeting was held with around thirty personalities, including the presidents of the Senate and National Assembly, as well as representatives of all parties except France Insoumise and the National Rally, an indication that Bayou wants to forge an agreement between the central bloc, the Gaullist right and a part of the left.
To convince socialists, communists and environmentalists, who are part of the New Popular Front coalition, François Bayrou has put on the table the possibility of modifying the pension reform adopted in 2023. “I accept that we reopen all the issues,” he announced on television, stating that he is open to a new negotiation with social actors, although without completely annulling the law in force.
However, for the moment he has avoided revealing the broad outlines of his future government action, which he reserves for his official declaration of general policy before the Assembly, scheduled for January 14. And although it has promised not to “abuse” article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the approval of budget texts without a parliamentary vote, it reserves the right to use it “in case of blockage.”
The prime minister’s arguments do not seem sufficient for the progressive formations, which demand as a preliminary stage to any agreement the promise not to use 49.3. At the end of Thursday’s meeting, the general secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, declared that right now his party “finds no reason not to censure” the prime minister. “We are dismayed by the poverty of what has been proposed to us,” he added, confirming that they will not enter the government and that any PS member who agrees to participate will be suspended from membership.
A position similar to that of environmentalists who, in the words of MP Cyrielle Chatelain, believe that Bayrou “does not have a very clear vision of where he is going, unlike Michel Barnier, who at least planned and knew where he wanted to go.” .
At the moment, Bayrou is finding it difficult to even convince the right to remain in government. “He still does not meet the conditions,” Bruno Retailleau, who is still acting Minister of the Interior, declared on BFMTV-RMC on Wednesday. Talks between the prime minister and Republican party leaders continued well into the afternoon on Friday.
However, everything indicates that the next executive he is preparing could have a composition similar to the previous one, especially after the refusal of the socialists to participate. As an indication, in the interview on France 2, François Bayrou stated that he wanted to keep Retailleau in the Interior portfolio.
The prime minister considers that Retailleau, a member of the hard wing of the Republicans, “is in line with what a part of public opinion demands.” An announcement highly criticized by progressive groups, who fear, among other things, the drafting of a new law on immigration more repressive than the one approved a year ago.
Trip to Pau
Beyond the difficulties in breaking out of the current parliamentary deadlock, François Bayrou’s first days as prime minister have been marked by several highly criticized decisions. After the devastating passage of Cyclone Chido through Mayotte, he chose not to travel to this French department, nor attend the crisis meeting in person at the Elysée. Instead, he flew to Pau to attend the municipal council of the city of which he is mayor.
“You should not have gone to Pau to keep your position there, but to the crisis meeting at the Elysée to assume your new role,” criticized Mathilde Panot, parliamentary leader of France Insoumise in Bayrou’s first question session before the Assembly. National. He was also harshly criticized by the president of the chamber, the Macronist Yaël Braun-Pivet, who stated before the media that “I would have preferred that the prime minister, instead of taking a plane to Pau, had taken the plane to Mamoudzou.”
Bayrou’s explanations increased criticism. “The president had announced that he would go to Mayotte: it is not usual for the prime minister and the president to leave the national territory at the same time,” he said by way of justification, in confusing statements that implied that Mayotte is not part of the territory. French. On Tuesday night, his cabinet clarified that Bayrou intended to visit the archipelago soon “to address the reconstruction.”
The new prime minister is also coming under heavy criticism for a sudden change of position on the accumulation of charges. Since 2017, a deputy cannot hold other local positions in France, a measure publicly supported by Bayrou himself on multiple occasions and which he now opposes. He states that he does not want to stop being mayor of Pau, convinced that “there is a rupture (…) between life in the provinces and the circle of power in Paris”, which must be addressed.
The special law adopted on Monday by the National Assembly to counteract the absence of a budget for 2025 and ensure the functioning of the State has relieved pressure on the new team. Bayrou has stated that he wants to present a new budget, based on the one prepared by Michel Barnier, in mid-February. Barring any surprise, this will be the great litmus test to see if he is capable of building an executive that can last longer than the ephemeral Barnier Government.
“I think there is a way. Maybe it’s the delirious optimism of someone who doesn’t want to see reality,” Bayrou explained before the France 2 cameras. “In any case, I tell you with certainty that if we don’t succeed this time, it will be the last station before we meet the edge of the cliff.”
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