The five keys to Trump's victory in the Iowa caucuses

Donald Trump has swept the caucus of Iowa. The former president of the United States has achieved a record victory that puts him on track towards the nomination as a Republican Party candidate for the presidential elections on November 5, 2024. This Monday he appeared with a smile in Des Moines (Iowa) to celebrate the results. The data smiles at you. The five key aspects to interpret the results of this Monday's election are full of good news for Trump.

1. Trump achieves more than 50%

The polls gave the former president a resounding victory, but it was up in the air whether he could surpass the 50% mark. This past weekend he was joking with campaign volunteers with contradictory messages. On the one hand, he told them that the goal should be to overcome the lead of just over 12 points that Bob Dole achieved in 1988. “We should do that. If we don't do it, let them criticize us, right? But he knew that that was not enough: “Let's see if we reach 50%,” he told them, although shortly before he had complained about setting such a high expectation. “[Es para] that if we end up with 49%, which would be about 25 points more than anyone has ever obtained, they can say: 'It was a failure, it was a failure,' he said.

In the end, it has been a complete success. Trump has swept 51% of the votes, more than all of his rivals combined, and takes at least half of the 40 delegates at stake. Furthermore, his advantage over the second is 30 points.

2. DeSantis beats Haley

The second question to be resolved on election night was who came second. For almost the entire campaign, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has held that position, but his trajectory was downward and that of Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the UN and former governor of South Carolina, was upward. The survey of Des Moines Register this Sunday, the reference in the caucus of Iowa, placed the candidate slightly ahead. In the end, DeSantis breathed a sigh of relief by achieving 21.2% of the votes, compared to Haley's 19.1%.

For Trump it is good news. If Haley had achieved second position, she would be greatly strengthened in the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, where she has a good position in the polls. There, however, DeSantis arouses little sympathy. Overall, Trump had practically written off the Florida governor and perceived a greater threat in Haley.

3. Participation falls

Polls said Trump voters were the most enthusiastic and Haley voters the least. With temperatures of less than 20 degrees below zero, attendance at caucus of Iowa has suffered. Just over 110,000 people have voted, compared to the record of more than 180,000 in 2016, when Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio competed head-to-head without a very clear favorite. This time, apart from the cold and snow, the feeling that Trump's victory was incontestable has left more people at home.

For Trump, the good news is that his voters have mobilized even under these conditions. The former president had made a half-serious, half-joking appeal for them to vote, even if they were sick and were giving up their lives trying: “Even if you are sick and feel like a dog. Even if you vote and then die, it will be worth it,” he told them at a rally on Sunday in Indianola, south of Des Moines, the capital of Iowa.

4. Goodbye to Ramaswamy

It is said that the caucus of Iowa function as a sieve. Billionaire investor Vivek Ramaswamy has not passed it. He came fourth in the vote with 7.7% of the votes and threw in the towel, after spending part of his own fortune on the campaign and tirelessly traveling every corner of Iowa for months. “We haven't achieved the surprise we wanted to give tonight,” he justified. “From this moment on we are going to suspend this presidential campaign. There is no way for me to be the next president in the absence of things that we do not want to happen in this country,” he said goodbye. The other marginal candidates—Ryan Binkley, with 0.7% of the vote, and Asa Hutchinson, with 0.2%—have been just that, marginal.

For Trump, Ramaswamy's withdrawal is another piece of good news. He is a declared Trumpist, he has asked to vote for the former president and will begin campaigning with him in New Hampshire. It's not that he contributes much, since he had less than 5% in national polls, but his followers will mostly opt for Trump after his withdrawal.

5. The New Hampshire Trail

There is one week left until the second round in the primary race, on Tuesday, January 23 in New Hampshire. It is the State in which Nikki Haley is closest to Donald Trump. On the other hand, Ron DeSantis is off the hook. The result in Iowa will influence voters' perceptions and the general impression is that the battle is almost closed as soon as it begins.

Haley would have been boosted by a second place in Iowa. Being third, defending that the nomination race is a matter of two—her and Trump, of course—sounds less convincing. The former president will also add Ramaswamy's votes. Still, the only slim chance of Trump not being the Republican nominee — judicial surprises aside — would be a Haley victory next week. She now she seems further away than before caucus of Iowa.

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