The countries of the Middle East, the EU and the US move to the Syrian board so as not to be excluded from the new stage

A few days after taking power and expelling dictator Bashar Al Assad from Syria, the new authorities led by the Islamist armed group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have begun to receive envoys from other countries in Damascus, despite the fact that the situation is still unstable and very uncertain; Meanwhile, the governments of the region, the European Union and the United States closely follow the movements of the insurgents so as not to be excluded from this new stage in the Arab country.

The leader of HTS, Abu Mohamad Al Jolani (also known as Ahmad Al Sharaa), has become the visible face of regime change in Syria and, despite his jihadist past – he was active in both the Islamic State terrorist group and the Syrian arm of Al Qaeda – has been recognized as a valid interlocutor in Damascus, even for those Governments that consider HTS a terrorist group (such as the United States).

Last Thursday, a Turkish delegation traveled to the Syrian capital and met with Al Jolani, according to images that were broadcast by local media. The most special guest was The head of Turkish Intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, whose country has exerted a lot of influence in Syria and does not want to stop having it. A few hours later, Ankara appointed a chargé d’affaires to head its Embassy in Damascus: the Turkish news agency Anadolu reported that the current ambassador to Mauritania, Burhan Koroglu, was appointed to that position.

This Saturday, the Turkish Embassy in Damascus – closed in 2012 after the brutal repression of popular protests against the Al Assad regime – reopened its doors.

Türkiye does not want to lose its influence

The Turkish Government considers HTS a terrorist group (it was created from the arm of Al Qaeda in Syria), but due to its presence and control in northwest Syria, Ankara has had no choice but to coexist with this formation. armed and even collaborate with it. Now, it seems willing to forget its jihadist record and accept its leadership in Syria, since the insurgents supported by Turkey (of a more moderate tendency) have participated in the offensive against Al Assad but are not now among the new leaders in Damascus. Nor is the political opposition supported by the Turkish government (the Syrian National Coalition, based in Istanbul) directly participating in the transition of power in Damascus.

Turkey is the neighboring country of Syria that has been most involved in the conflict, due to its own political and strategic interests, and now it does not want to miss the opportunity to continue influencing the Arab country, not only in the extreme north next to its border. –where it has had troops deployed for years–.

While Al Assad’s main allies, Russia and Iran, are silently withdrawing, the Arab countries reach out to the new authorities, with whom they know they will have to collaborate at the regional level, although not all like to see a group like HTS in power. This is the case of the United Arab Emirates, which was the first Arab government to normalize relations with Al Assad in 2018, after several years of civil war in Syria. Saudi Arabia had reopened its embassy in Damascus last September.

The Arab League approved in 2023 that Al Assad’s Government would once again be a member of this body, after its expulsion in 2011 for the bloody repression of protests in the streets of Syria. Now, its representation in the Arab League will also change, as members announce the reopening of their Embassies in Damascus and change the Syrian flag to the one used by the opposition in diplomatic legations in each of the 21 countries. Bahrain, which is the interim president of the Arab League, has expressed its desire for Syria to “resume its role” within the organization, in a message expressly addressed to Ahmed Al Sharaa.

Qatar announced this week that it will “soon” reopen its Embassy in Syria, which has remained closed all these years, in which the Government in Doha has supported the insurgents and has sent humanitarian aid to areas of northwestern Syria that were beyond control. of the regime. On Thursday, The Qatari Government announced the arrival of a shipment of 30 tons of aid for Syria to the Turkish city of Gazantiep, near the border with territories that have been controlled by the opposition for years. Qatar has not yet sent a representative to Damascus, but it has established communications with HTS, as confirmed to elDiario.es earlier this week by a source familiar with the contacts between the Syrian armed group and Qatari diplomats. “Communication with HTS and other groups is based on the need for them to remain calm and preserve Syria’s public institutions during the transitional period,” the source explained.

The EU and the US need to talk to the Islamists

The European Union (EU) celebrated the fall of the Al Assad regime as a “hope” for the Syrian people and also for the weakness that, in its opinion, its main supporters, Russia and Iran, have shown. From there, it moves with caution due to the “volatility” of the situation and the lack of knowledge of the behavior that HTS may have, which is part of the list of terrorist organizations for the community club.

From Brussels, diplomatic sources say that it is early to make decisions, including those related to the lifting of sanctions – adopted against the Syrian regime since 2011 – but they do admit the need to establish “contacts” as soon as possible with the new regime. “There will be contacts, at a work level, not political ones,” say community sources, who consider this exchange of “messages” “important” to convey to the new authorities the “expectations” of the EU, which are basically the protection of the minorities and respect for territorial sovereignty.

What they recognize is that there is “uncertainty” regarding how the situation in Syria will evolve, although they see some “progress” in the attitude of HTS leaders. “Our plans are to reestablish some type of presence, talk to them and make a difference, but it is not only up to us,” say these sources, who also point to the “plans” of countries that have “a great interest in Syria.” , especially those from the Mediterranean.

More instability in Syria could lead to the arrival of new refugees to Europe, while the normalization of the situation in the country could open the door for the millions of Syrians who have fled since 2011 to return (most of them are in the countries neighbors, about half are in Turkey). Although it is still very premature, several European countries decided to freeze the asylum application process for Syrian citizens. First there were Germany, Belgium and Austria, joined by France, Italy, Greece, Holland, Sweden, Croatia, Finland, Denmark and – outside the EU – the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland.

“Few capitals look with enthusiasm on the predominant Islamists in Damascus, but for now there is no other option but to work with the new authorities,” Crisis Group stated in an assessment of the situation in Syria after the fall of Al Assad. The group that works in favor of conflict resolution has recommended not supporting other rival armed factions of HTS because “it would be a recipe for more chaos”; He has also asked those with links to HTS to pressure the Islamists to “include as many voices in the Government and to follow an inclusive line.”

The US Administration has even established contacts with HTS, as confirmed this Saturday by the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who pointed out that it is important to speak with the group about “its behavior and intentions” ahead of the stage. transient. Blinken went to Jordan this weekend to participate in a conference on Syria attended by several foreign ministers from Arab countries and the heads of diplomacy of Turkey, Hakan Fidan, and the European Union, Kaja Kallas, among other representatives. . The UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, was also present.