Claudia Sheinbaum is still who the president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador He wants to deliver the presidential band in 2024, but the charge that had formed after it broke. Moderates and radicals in the environment of López Obrador in the National Palace, where the temperature of power is measured, have abandoned their support for the Head of Government of Mexico City which, according to a diagnosis for the president, is the Morenista governor with the most recurring problems and the one that produces the most negatives.
It does not mean that López Obrador is changing his dolphin, but there are signs that manifest destiny for Sheinbaum no longer exists. The inconvenience against her is that she is becoming a liability for the president, who frequently has to be bailing her out of the quagmire. López Obrador has been sending recriminatory messages to Sheinbaum for months demanding that she not make mistakes, with the help of senior officials whom he has asked to support her, but far from resolving them, they have increased.
The problems in the Meter they were a catalyst. In one of the regular reports that the attorney general Alejandro Gertz Manero delivered to the president about the electoral processes -work outside his powers-, he concluded that the justification of “sabotage” in the accidents in the Metro had not permeated, but rather revealed his inability to address the problems in the capital.
The thesis of the sabotage was abandoned, but it has not helped to prevent the head of government from continuing to fall in electoral preferences, according to internal surveys that register as one of the two main factors -the first was the Metro- electoral overexposure in the country and its weekly tours of the Republic, which was an original idea of the president, which he has already reduced.
Despite the adjustments, the annoyance within the National Palace over her management is growing, along with the frustration of those closest to the president, whom she had asked to accompany her and work in parallel with Sheinbaum’s team, of which she expresses herself pejoratively. Lopez Obrador. The most notable case, due to the symbiotic relationship they have, was a clash at the end of January between López Obrador and his head of propaganda and political adviser, Jesus Ramirez Cuevas, who, according to a description of that moment, explained to him that Sheinbaum has only maintained himself by managing crises, which has generated additional wear on his image and, consequently, on the president.
No Morenista government, according to internal analyzes presented to the president, generates more conflicts than Sheinbaum’s, and it has a systematic pattern of controversies, unlike the rest of the entities governed by the party, where although permanent, they are intermittent. These management problems led to the fact that the presidential team in the Palace had divided, with more and more of them abandoning their preferences and support for the head of government.
In this troubled river, the one who has obtained the best dividends is the Secretary of Foreign Relations, Marcelo Ebrard, because they consider that he is doing a job that Yes, you are supporting López Obrador’s project, and they are beginning to recognize him -something that the most radical did not do-, that in the selection of the presidential candidate in 2012, he was loyal to the president and did not break the cohesion of the left by rejecting the poll that defined the standard-bearer of the left.
The drop in Sheimbaum’s sympathies in the presidential team did not transfer practically anything to the Secretary of the Interior, Adán Augusto López, who is not liked very much in National Palace, although unlike Ebrard, he has the main support, that of the president, who is managing to increase the promotion of his almost lifelong friend, who allows the conjecture that if Sheinbaum collapses, he could turn to him as an alternative.
The signs that are coming out of the National Palace is that Morena’s presidential candidacy has not yet been defined. As a result of the change in support for Sheinbaum, starting this month, two measurements began to be made to measure the likes of these three pre-candidates – Senator Ricardo Monreal and Deputy Gerardo Fernández Noroña, forcibly incorporated into the group called corcholatas, They were not considered in those polls. One is carried out within the team at the National Palace and the close collaborators of López Obrador in the State secretariats, and another on the quantitative and qualitative impact on the media throughout the country. The results of the first exercise have not been delivered.
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The objective seeks to have a very clear idea of how the different groups and political tribes of Morena are moving and in favor of whom, and the way in which they are perceiving the work of Sheinbaum, Ebrard and López, as well as to evaluate how their work is being seen. image. The rationale behind the polls is to avoid a fracture in Morena.
What is happening in the National Palace has the approval of López Obrador, and the work that will be carried out practically throughout the year points to an adequate method to find out who is best positioned within Morena and among public opinion, so that it is nominated for the presidential candidacy. But at the same time, this measurement system in search of the best card, completely clashes with the essence of López Obrador, who, although he is a devourer of polls, makes decisions based on his instinct, which does not always coincide with the demoscopic studies.
What López Obrador really thinks only he knows, and what he reasons today may be different from what he brings to mind tomorrow. The signals from the Palace, however, show that at this moment the presidential candidacy is open, that Sheinbaum does not bring them with him and López has distant hopes. Ebrard begins to be in the spirit of the presidential team, but so far, from what he transcends, not yet in López Obrador’s.
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