By November 15th at the latest the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit shall introduce he Economic Package for 2025which is made up of three projects: General Criteria of Economic policy (CGPE), the initiative of the Law of Income (LIF) and the draft Budget of Expenses.
The team of the SHCPwhich will mostly be the same for the next administration, with the exception of the virtual undersecretary of expenditures, Bertha Gómez Castro, are working so that the next Economic Package 2025 comply with the projections estimated. Based on a economy which is supported by solid internal demand and a dynamic labor framework, according to the CGPE a real growth range of between 2.0% and 3.0% annually, inflation of approximately 3.3%, average interest rates of 7%, an exchange rate between 17.8 and 18 pesos per dollar, a current account deficit of between .2% and .3% of GDP, due to the surplus in the trade balance and the Mexican Petroleum Blend at 58.4 dollars per barrel.
By 2025, the federal executive will seek to consolidate public finances by reducing public spending. Budget revenues are estimated at 7.77 trillion pesos (bdp) – around 22% of GDP -, 163 billion pesos more than the previous year, due to economic strength, job creation and good performance in tax collection.
In terms of tax revenues, 5.5 bpd are expected from the Federal Government, 0.98 billion pesos in oil revenues – less than in 2024 due to a lower average price per barrel – and 1.2 bpd from organizations and companies. These indicators will surely keep finances stable, healthy and in line with the established goals.
As a result of a lower financial cost, less spending on ADEFAS -12 billion pesos- and a decrease in the programmable spending item from 6.4 bdp to 6.0 bdp compared to the approved amount -9.9% less-, total net spending will be 706 billion pesos lower for the 2025 budget. Social spending on public programs and services remains unaffected; the SHCP, through various administrative branches, has budgeted a total of 1.25 trillion pesos.
A favorable outlook is expected for next year, as estimates show: sustained economic growth, increased income and investment, greater contributions to federal entities, a reduction in the public deficit by half – primary surplus – and a public debt at levels of 50.2% of GDP. Finally, global economic activity will be very important, mainly in the USA, our largest trading partner, and China, and its possible impact on macroeconomic variables.
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