The PSOE would win the elections today with 32.6% of the votes, but has seen its advantage reduced by nine tenths compared to the previous poll, which leaves the situation in a technical tie with the PP, which would obtain 32.2% after go back half a point, according to the latest CIS.
A result that is not trivial considering that the institute directed by José Félix Tezanos carried out this opinion barometer at the beginning of October and that reflects the wear and tear of the socialist party in the framework of the negotiations to achieve the investiture.
The survey, with a sample of 4,031 respondents, does not explicitly ask about the amnesty, but the issue permeates the result since it was carried out between October 2 and 6, just a few days after the failed investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and with the round of consultations after which King Felipe VI designated Pedro Sánchez as the new candidate, which reflects the position of the Spanish people on the demands of Junts and ERC as a bargaining chip to support the PSOE.
In fact, the small print of the barometer sheds light on how the negotiations for an agreement between the PSOE and the pro-independence parties are developing. The party led by Carles Puigdemont and key to the success of Sánchez’s investiture with its seven seats, would today fall below the 1.6% that he obtained in the 23-J elections. On the contrary, Esquerra would benefit, exceeding the 1.7% it obtained at the polls. In the survey corresponding to the month of September, the CIS predicted a tie between both parties with 1.7%.
As for Sumar and Vox, the platform led by Yolanda Díaz se and which is called to be the main partner of a coalition government, strengthens its position as the third political force and increases its advantage over those of Abascal with 12.7% and 10.1%, respectively.
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As for EH Bildu, the only party that has so far communicated its express support for Sánchez, it drops 0.4 points to 0.9% of the votes, while the PNV remains at 0.8%. one tenth less than in September.
As an anecdote, PACMA – which has no representation in Congress – obtains 1%, ahead of the Basque nationalist parties and the BNG.
Although Pedro Sánchez is, with 29.2%, the political leader that those surveyed would prefer as President of the Government compared to the 23.5% who lean towards Feijóo, the truth is that the socialist leader falls five tenths compared to the previous month, while the Galician rises nearly 3 points.
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