The electoral campaign and the presidential debate are permeating the feelings of Mexican citizens like fine rain. It is evident from the surge in the polls that the street knows who the candidates are, because 45% know that the polls will open on June 2 and, above all, because 72% of the The population has already decided which vote it will cast in them. This latest survey by Enkoll for EL PAÍS and W Radio, carried out between April 8 and 14, does not report any major surprises about the candidate who emerges as the winner, the Morenista Claudia Sheinbaum, with a good difference over the others (60% preference effective); But there is a scenario still open for the opposition candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez (33%), who will have to fight tooth and nail to not let herself be taken over by Jorge Álvarez Máynez (7%).
The emecista has been gaining points precisely because he started with more of a disadvantage and started the electoral race much later, he only has to go up. Blurred at first, Máynez already has half of the voters and the good opinion they have of him rises to 36%, exactly the same as Gálvez. He raises just the three points that she lowers in this category, although we cannot speak here of a transfer of votes. “Máynez, for now, is collecting among the undecided, as can be seen in the graphs,” says Heidi Osuna, director of Enkoll. Sheinbaum has plenty of citizen affinities (67%). If the gold medal seems clear, the silver and bronze medals are still being played.
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The almost immutable strength of Claudia Sheinbaum, which even grows in some aspects, such as the gross voting preference (54%) or the favorable opinion of the citizens (67%), shrinks the figure of Xóchitl Gálvez, who is not able to shake the burdens of his campaign and those that arise day by day. A photo 48 hours after the debate, in which she appears surrounded by the leaders of the parties that support her, Alito Moreno for the PRI, Marko Cortés for the PAN and Jesús Zambrano for the PRD, does not need much explanation. She offered it herself last Thursday by slamming her shoe on the table: “I'm going to say to hell a lot of things that I'm not willing to accept,” she said. “I'm going to be me and if they want me as I am, go ahead,” she concluded.
The survey makes it clear that there are parties for which Mexicans would never vote, such as the PRI, which garners a rejection of 49%, or the PAN, 19%. But Gálvez wants to fight again on his own, as can be inferred from his statements, and to do so he has 26% of undecided voters to win over from his still meager gross vote preference, 30%, which is slowly creeping up month by month. by month, point by point. But not only the political formations that support candidate Gálvez diminish her aspirations; It itself obtains a gross rejection of 48% (9 points more than in February) or an effective rejection of 59%, an almost impregnable wall if nothing changes. Even so, her figure continues to be key for the coalition, since her total rejection is 59%, which, although high, does not reach the total of the three parties that she supports (67%).
Another obstacle now rises on the horizon of the opposition coalition, the one represented by the candidate Máynez, who has scored four points since February, standing at 7% in the citizens' option, both in gross preference, which includes undecided, as in the effective one, those who already have it clear. The orange party has fewer voters, but they seem stronger. “It remains to be seen if Máynez, in addition to among the undecided, manages to remove votes from Gálvez or Sheinbaum. At the beginning of the campaign it was considered logical that if the Citizen Movement presented a candidate that it would represent a wedge for the opposition's hopes. For now it doesn't seem that way. “The worrying thing for the opposition coalition is that it is not able to translate the knowledge of the candidate into votes, which is increasing among citizens,” says Osuna. In fact, in July of last year, only 33% of the voters knew Gálvez and she received 30% of the effective preference; She is now known to 84% of those surveyed, however, the vote does not take off to the same extent, she remains at 33%, just three points more in almost a year. “Máynez, however, is making himself known among the population profitable; he has gone from 3% to 7% in effective preference since January. Even Sheinbaum has risen six points since July 2023,” explains Osuna.
This survey has crossed voting preference with several factors, including admiration or animosity for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Although 63% of those consulted believe that it is better for Morena to continue governing at this time, the sympathies for the Morena leader are clearly reflected in a candidate who has remained totally attached to his figure and his politics: 68% who He says he approves of the figure of the president and will give his vote to the successor, although paradoxically 19% will opt for Gálvez. Those are the surprises of the electorate. And what happens among those who disapprove of López Obrador? Despite this, Sheinbaum achieves 16% of those votes, Máynez 13%. Logically, Gálvez wins here with 62%.
When citizens are asked who they voted for in the past, in this case in 2018, they do not always tell the truth, some join the candidate who won, explains Osuna. In any case, 85% of those will inherit their vote for Sheinbaum, and even the 24% who did not vote for the boss. “With these data we understand the opposition's bet to hit the president, with the understanding that if he fell in popularity, so would his successor; Therefore, if López Obrador goes down, Gálvez goes up,” says Osuna, but it is not so clear that this is happening, he only mentions the drop in popularity of Obrador in times of pandemic, nothing to do with the economic mood that the country breathes today. .
The Morena tsumani is still in force in the presidential elections, it is the color that between 54% and 60% of the electorate opt for when asked about Sheinbaum and 51% if it is Morena, compared to the 30% they gather the three coalition parties.
Gálvez finds a better fit among women than among men, but not Sheinbaum, who garners more support among men and among people aged 18 to 43, while her opponent slightly raises her voting floor from that age onwards. . Máynez, who has focused his campaign on the universities, in search of the young and new vote, that of rejecting the old politics, obtains the greatest support among that segment of the student body among those who will vote for him, but curiously, among those who will not vote for him. That same age attracts more rejection.
Another factor that has influenced voting preference for these presidential elections is the socioeconomic level of the citizens. Although Sheinbaum wins in all of them, she curiously gets the worst marks among those she claims to defend, the poorest, just the opposite of the right-wing candidate. Máynez gets the best result here among the upper class, a 12, which falls to 4 with respect to those who consider themselves poorer. Perhaps they know it less, because one of the parameters to establish economic class is the internet connection at home, for example. Not so much has income been taken into account as has the educational level, the quality of life in the home or the number of family vehicles, factors with which the Mexican Association of Investigation Agencies works, which have been followed here.
Osuna highlights, finally, that one of the most determining responses in these surveys is the population's knowledge of the day on which they are called to vote. In January, only 14% of those consulted guessed June 2, while 45% already know the date. This will determine the participation, which can be observed with greater certainty from now on. “Because those who know the election day are the ones who are most likely to go to vote.” There are 2 presidential debates left.
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