Carlos López Gómez, Professor of International Relations
The professor of International Relations detects in Putin an obsession with recovering the influence and power lost after the dissolution of the USSR
History is analyzed by historians and international relations are interpreted by those who, from the necessary distance, observe them every day from academic watchtowers. These conditions meet in a single person Carlos López Gómez. This professor at the University of Nebrija, possessor of a peripheral vision of our planet, analyzes the war in Ukraine.
He scrutinizes her with keys to the past and the present, with psychological analysis and a vision of the future that allows him to determine that in the end everything will depend on an enigmatic man like Vladimir Putin, whom only China can contain in his attempt to recover the empire of the czar travels that he did not know but always longed for.
–In Ukraine we find ourselves with an unthinkable war episode in this historical period?
– The attack was not expected. It seemed that everything was a plan, a threat and that there would be a negotiation, but the issues that have to do with war are unpredictable. And much more if we talk about a country in which decisions are made by one person, in this case Vladimir Putin, without any type of effective legal countermeasure.
– What could be in Putin’s mind?
– You have raised a series of sometimes contradictory justifications. On the one hand, there is his fear that Ukraine will come to a deeper alignment with the Western world after joining the EU or NATO, things that have never really been raised. On the other hand, there is the situation of the self-proclaimed republics of eastern Ukraine, whose defender he has set himself up for. But deep down, there is probably a motivation for Russia to regain influence and power lost as a result of the dissolution of the USSR. Lately Putin is obsessed with history, with what was the Soviet regime and wants to reverse the right of self-determination that was given to the former Soviet republics.
– A pathological obsession?
–Some testimonies of Western politicians and diplomats who have had personal contact with Putin detect a noticeable change in his personality during the last two years, a certain isolation from reality, an obsession with episodes in history, with his own historical role. They are not the most recommended ingredients for a person with his responsibility as the leader of a nuclear power.
–Diplomacy has been overcome once again?
-I don’t know if she has been overcome or simply she wasn’t counted on. There have been very great efforts, especially by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. We don’t know to what extent this had any feasibility point to be able to stop Russia’s plans. I am inclined to think that the invasion was decided in advance and that diplomacy would never have borne fruit.
–After the policy of faits accomplis, Putin is open to negotiating again.
-At some point you have to negotiate whatever the situation. Reach some kind of understanding, at least to end hostilities. A real resolution of the dispute is going to be very difficult and we are probably headed for an occupied territories-style stalemate in north Georgia.
Statute of neutrality
–Zelensky offers a status of neutrality.
-The idea of neutrality can satisfy the Russian demands if they are relatively moderate, because what it is presumably worried about is the expansion of NATO. Would it really be the solution? I don’t know because what seems sometimes is that the objective is the restoration of an imperial power.
-Biden maintains that Putin’s desire for expansion will not stop in Ukraine.
-On occasion European leaders or Josep Borrell himself have said that Europe as a whole is threatened. I don’t know if Putin’s plans could include an escalation that could threaten countries that are already members of the EU and NATO. It is more difficult to imagine and even inconceivable that Putin has in mind scenarios of military confrontation with NATO countries and ultimately a nuclear conflagration.
–The next target is Moldova?
-In Moldova there is also a territorial strip, in this case Transnistria, which operates independently protected by Russia, but which does not have international support. On Moldova there are no movements to admit it to the EU or NATO so that this poses a threat to Russia, but it is also true that entering the imperialist dialectic may be the next step.
–Are sanctions the only way to try to turn Russia back?
–The incidence of sanctions will depend on how far they are deepened. There are still some measures that can also be applied, such as preventing Russian financial transactions through the suspension of the SWIFT code. Russia can survive despite them thanks to an increase in its economic relations with China, but what attitude can Beijing adopt? She is not forced into anything that could jeopardize her export policy towards the Western world.
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