The Kremlin claimed this April 21 its biggest victory since launching the war against Ukraine almost two months ago: control of Mariupol. The fall of the strategic port town comes after Moscow changed its military tactics from the capital and north of the country to the east, where it says it seeks to “liberate” the Donbass region. How can this latest move influence the outcome of the war? We explain them.
From a national strategy to a regional military tactic. The change of approach of the Russian Army in recent days has dealt a heavy blow to Ukraine: the seizure of Mariupol, in the east of the country.
“The completion of the combat work to liberate Mariupol is a success (…) Bringing under control such an important center in the south as Mariupol is a success,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on April 21 of his biggest victory in the renewed battle in the Donbass region, after 57 days of launching the conflict.
Mariúpol is a strategic enclave with access to the Sea of Azov, whose seizure by the Russian military would be vital to establish a land corridor that leads from the Donbass region to Crimea, annexed by Putin in 2014, with which Moscow would control a large part of eastern Ukraine.
It is also the main port of Donbass, which itself is home to the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, two provinces that Moscow is demanding kyiv cede completely to the separatists. The Kremlin now describes it as the main objective of the war.
In that direction, military experts stress that Putin’s troops would seek to separate the Donbass from the rest of Ukraine and create there the so-called “puppet” republics, as those who oppose them call them.
This new stage brings some great advantages that Moscow did not have when it was trying to conquer the whole country. But on paper it also seemed likely that Russia would win the first phase of the conflict in a matter of days and topple the government in kyiv. And that didn’t happen.
Zelenski had already recognized that the battle in the east could influence the entire course of the war, but maintains that his country is not willing to give up territory. The West hastens for the delivery of more weapons with which kyiv affirms that its military could change the course of the conflict.
A new panorama opens up on the ground.
The change of focus on the battlefield
After failing to overthrow the Zelensky government, Russia moved most of its troops from the north of the nation, where the capital is located, to the eastern part of Ukraine, the Donbass region.
So far, much of the fighting has been in parts of the country that resemble suburbs. Between houses, buildings and side streets the Ukrainian forces have been able to protect themselves and then attack the Russian soldiers.
This physical geography leaves civilians vulnerable, but benefits local troops who use so-called “guerrilla warfare” to defend territory against the advancing foreign army, military experts Eric Schmitt explained to The New York Times. and David Leonhardt.
Ukraine thus dealt heavy blows and casualties among the ranks of its counterpart, forcing it to change tactics.
In the Donbass, the geography is different. It is much more open and there are fewer places to hide. “This terrain will allow Russia to use its many tanks, large missile systems and other heavy weapons systems. The Ukrainian Army has far fewer of these. The shoulder-launched missiles that Ukraine has been receiving from the West, and which it has used to great effect over the last two months, will probably be less useful in Donbass,” Leonhardt stressed.
Another advantage for the aggressor army is that the Donbass region borders Russia, which allows Putin’s military to build shorter and less exposed supply lines than they needed in other parts of Ukraine.
In addition, Russia is familiar with the territory, as it began fighting sporadic battles there at least since 2014 and has been supporting separatist rebels ever since.
Aside from military tactics, public opinion in the region also appears to be more favorable to the Russians. At least more than in other parts of the nation. Shortly before the war, about 30 percent of the region’s residents wanted it to become part of Russia, while another 10 percent favored independence, according to a survey by academic researchers.
This situation is very different in the rest of the country, where Ukrainian patriotism is widely shared.
Ukraine’s room for maneuver
Russia’s advantages in the east give reason to believe that it may fare better in the next phase of the war than it did in the first two months, seen by some analysts as a humiliating defeat, because of its early withdrawal from kyiv.
However, the problems still facing his troops may favor local forces.
Putin and his army face some of the same challenges as at the start, including poor coordination of their forces and low morale among their ranks, experts say.
“The vehicles are still poorly maintained, the morale of the troops will remain low,” Michael Repass, a US major-general who has worked with Ukraine for years, told the British newspaper ‘The Times’.
And it is that, despite the military power of the Kremlin, its air force has not been able to dominate the skies of Ukraine completely. His military units rarely communicated over encrypted lines, allowing Ukraine to intercept their messages. Many Russian troops did not expect to invade the neighboring country and did not agree that their superiors ordered them to do so, analysts recall.
Russian forces can gain ground through the sheer concentration of artillery and numbers. However, the Russian operations are unlikely to be much more successful than previous major offensives around kyiv, said the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military research group.
The explanation? The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes – poor coordination, inability to conduct cross-country operations and low morale – that prevented earlier offensives.
If we add demographics to this picture, any onslaught against civilians there can turn sympathy into strong opposition to the Russians.
Kharkiv, a city in the east where the main language is Russian, “is being heavily bombed” and in the last few hours at least five civilians have been injured, said the mayor of the town, Oleg Synegubov. There, the constant attacks have made many residents “brutally angry” with foreign forces, reporters at the scene have said.
A reluctance on the part of these populations would harm the discourse that Vladimir Putin has spread about “liberating”, “demilitarizing” and “denazifying” Ukraine.
Azovstal, the resistance plant in Mariupol
Despite Putin’s declaration of victory in Mariupol, around 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers along with dozens of civilians are still holding out inside the city’s huge 11 square kilometer Azovstal steel factory.
It is one of the largest steel plants in Europe and this week Ukrainian forces have rejected several ultimatums set by the Russian Defense Ministry for them to surrender.
After the Kremlin’s declaration of victory, Zelensky replied that the Ukrainian army still remains in parts of the besieged city.
This Thursday Moscow changed its tactics there and ordered to go from the attack to the blockade, so that “not even a fly passes”, Putin assured in a meeting with his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu.
With the modification in his strategy, the Russian president would be trying to avoid more casualties among his ranks in case the assault continues. In fact, Putin said that he would not risk sending troops into the maze of tunnels beneath the giant plant, but that he would prefer to isolate the redoubts.
The new order came after Shoigu pointed out that it would take several days for Russian forces to defeat the hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers holding out inside.
Despite the siege, the Ukrainian resistance makes its way both in Azovstal and in the rest of the region and the country. The posture is now fueled by new arms shipments from its Western allies.
US President Joe Biden is working to complete a new weapons package, likely to be similar in size to an $800 million one announced last week, a military source told Reuters.
British military intelligence says Russian forces are eager to demonstrate any significant success before May 9, the anniversary of the Allied victory in Europe in World War II.
The Government of Germany, until now reluctant to give military aid, has also been willing to do so in recent hours. “There are no taboos for us regarding armored vehicles and other weapons that Ukraine needs,” said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, after receiving criticism on the matter.
The Kremlin has switched to an approach that is generating its first noticeable results, but kyiv is not giving up and its Western allies promise to boost its military capacity.
A quick victory for either side seems unlikely.
With Reuters, AP and local media
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