Risk of war with Russia? Germany and Europe must “invest more in defense”. The German ambassador to Rome, Hans-Dieter Lucas, in a forum at Adnkronos does not rule out a conflict scenario and underlines the need to “strengthen our defenses and our capacity for deterrence”. “We find ourselves in a critical situation, the war in Ukraine continues and Russia has once again activated the war economy, investing more and more in its defense industry, in its armed forces. It is something that we naturally follow with great concern”, underlines the ambassador, an expert on Russia and security policy, who has been in Rome since last September.
In this scenario, “I think the conclusion is that we must naturally invest more to strengthen defenses and deterrence capabilities.” “And it is for this reason – recalls Lucas – that Defense Minister Oscar Pistorius recently spoke several times about the need to make our Armed Forces capable of facing a possible military conflict with Russia in the years to come”. Not only that: according to the ambassador, “we must really do our best as Germans, as Europeans to strengthen our defense capabilities”.
And we talked about new tools to finance the strengthening of European defense “during the last European Council: Germany thinks that there is a need to increase our military capacity and we need to see which tools to use to finance this spending, which they are the most acceptable tools,” he continued. “The EU Commission has been asked to present a proposal where all options will be examined and there will be a further discussion in June. It is clear that we all need to do more.”
“We are waiting to see what the EU Commission will propose. Among the options – explains Lucas, in reference to the various hypotheses on the table to finance the increased European defense spending – there is the involvement of the European Investment Bank and this would require a modification of its statute. Among other options there are those that envisage mobilizing private capital more, which is particularly necessary”.
“There is also the need to spend better and efficiently”, the ambassador further observes. For example, he underlines, “we are working with Italy on strengthening cooperation between our defense industries.” “I believe – he reiterates – that there is a need to strengthen the consolidation of our defense industries in Europe”.
As regards the Eurobond hypothesis, “we must take note of what the German Constitutional Court said on Next Generation Eu. There are limits on the things to be done regarding an instrument for sharing public debt at European level: it would be a which is difficult but there are other options on the table. And we must evaluate which is the most acceptable path for all member states to finance an increase in European military capacity.”
On Ukraine, the German diplomat reiterated the need to continue supporting the defense against the Russian attack, but made it clear that Germany remains firm on the Taurus issue. Lucas explains why: “If we were to deliver Taurus missiles to Kiev, and German soldiers were to somehow play a role in the use of these weapons, this could lead to a situation where our country could be considered a party to the conflict, and this could lead to further escalation.” This was Chancellor Scholz's concern regarding the possible supply of the Taurus and this was the reason why he decided not to deliver them to Ukraine.”
As regards support for Kiev more generally, “first of all let's remember that Germany is already doing a lot: in 2024 we will make a contribution in the field of military assistance of around 7 billion Euros”, he said, underlining that Berlin “is the second supplier after the United States”. The German contribution “is already very substantial”. At the same time, however, she added, it is important to note that what Ukraine needs most at the moment are ammunition and air defense because Russia attacks from above. In the two sectors our support is substantial and must be strengthened.”
During the Forum, the ambassador also spoke about the situation in the Middle East and the new risks linked to the tensions between Israel and Iran. “The tension is very high, but the important thing is that we do not see a new escalation in the Middle East.” “It is important – he underlines – that we do not see a new escalation because what we see is already extremely worrying as regards Israel and Gaza”. And for the future, Lucas indicated in the meantime “the need now, the priority” of “arriving first and foremost an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and at the same time the release of the hostages. This is the priority, because the humanitarian situation in Gaza is unsustainable. So release hostages and ceasefire and on this basis calm the situation and then restart the political process with the aim of a two-state solution.” “Because from our point of view this is the only way”, he underlined, pointing out that “on this there is total agreement between Germany and Italy, total agreement on the fact that only a two-state solution will create a viable basis for long-term peace and stability in the Middle East”.
In terms of bilateral relations, the German ambassador looks at the Action Plan signed in November in Rome by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Chancellor Olaf Scholz as “a very important and substantial document, a roadmap for a further deepening of bilateral relations, which They have a great tradition.”
“We are closely linked”, he added, recalling the “around 800 thousand Italians or of Italian origin who live in Germany, the 12 million Germans who spend their holidays in Italy”. “Our economies are highly integrated and as regards political issues there is a great agreement between the two countries. Of course there is still to be done. In the political field – he stated – there is the ambition to work jointly in sector of foreign security policy and for this reason we have established new formats of cooperation between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense. We are trying to intensify cooperation in the field of defense industries.”
“In the economic sector – he then recalled – we are working on a large project, that of the “South central hydrogen corridor”, which aims to produce and transport green hydrogen from North Africa to Italy up to Germany passing through Austria. It is a large multi-billion dollar project on which there is very intense cooperation currently.” There are many other sectors of cooperation, “many areas in which we work” and I am very optimistic that the Action Plan will serve to further deepen and intensify a relationship that is already very substantial”, he concluded.
Finally, looking at the next European elections, the ambassador spoke of the risk of a leap by the far right linked to “simplistic responses” to complex crises, from wars to migration. “It's not like this everywhere – he underlines – but generally I think that the tendency to vote for political forces of the extreme right and sometimes of the extreme left has to do with the fact that people feel insecure and destabilized due to conflicts, uncontrolled migration, the consequences of climate change”.
“People feel insecure – insists the ambassador – and there is an increased tendency to look for extreme and easy answers and the far right tends to give simplistic and nationalistic answers, such as 'make our nation great again', which It's not really an answer to the problems.” On the other hand, Lucas underlines referring to his country, “I think that in Germany it is significant to have seen many people take to the streets to demonstrate against the far right… there is a large part of the population who is very worried and who is ready to defend democracy.”
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