Russia has confirmed this Wednesday the withdrawal of its troops from the western bank of the Dnieper River, which includes the key city of Kherson. If confirmed, this withdrawal represents a major success for Ukraine and a defeat for the Kremlin, which would be preparing to abandon the only provincial capital that it managed to conquer as a result of the invasion of Ukraine that began on February 24.
The Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigú, has given his approval to the withdrawal proposed by the general in command of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Sergey Surovikin. “I understand that this is a very difficult decision, but at the same time we will preserve what is most important, the lives of our soldiers and the combat capacity of our groups of troops,” said the military chief in a war report released by the Russian Defense Department.
Russia is thus preparing to abandon its westernmost positions in Ukraine, a logical decision from a military point of view, but a setback for the image of the second largest army in the world. For the Ukrainian authorities, on the other hand, it would be one of the most awaited news since President Volodímir Zelenski stated in June that recovering Kherson should be the priority of the Armed Forces. The announcement by the Russian Ministry of Defense marks the largest withdrawal organized by Russian troops since the withdrawal at the end of March from the kyiv front. Subsequently, the Ukrainian army retook the Kharkov region and part of the Zaporizhia and Kherson provinces in counterattacks launched since September.
Moscow, whose troops had conquered Kherson on March 3, formally annexed this province — along with those of Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporizhia — on September 30 after illegal referendums not recognized by the international community. Donetsk and Luhansk have remained in pro-Russian hands since the Donbas war broke out in 2014.
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In a first reaction from kyiv, Mijailo Podoliak, President Zelensky’s main adviser, opted for prudence by telling the Reuters agency that it is too early to take Surovikin’s announcement for granted, and has insisted that not only do there continue to be units military in the city of Kherson and in the region, but have incorporated new ones. “Until the Ukrainian flag flies over Kherson, there is no point in talking about a Russian withdrawal,” added Podoliak.
The presidential adviser expressed on his Twitter account the conviction that the Russian forces are at a minimum: “Russian resources are close to being at the limit. That is why they hysterically ask for a break, to “negotiate”. In this context, the visit of Nicolai Patrushev (secretary of the Russian Security Council) to Tehran takes place: looking for a way to continue the war by obtaining missiles and drones, “to compensate for its lack of missiles”. “This is the perfect time to double aid to Ukraine,” Podoliak concluded.
Kremlin is exhausted. RF’s resources are close to the limit. Hence hysterical requests for a break (“negotiations”). Hence Patrushev’s visit to Tehran: looking for a way to continue war, get missiles/drones, fix its missile lack. Now is the perfect time to double aid for Ukraine.
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) November 9, 2022
“By comprehensively analyzing the current situation, the proposal is to form the defense along the left bank [oriental] of the Dnieper River,” Surovikin said. The military man, who was recently appointed responsible for the troops in Ukraine in the face of the setbacks suffered by Moscow on the southern and eastern fronts, argued that the departure of these troops “will free up forces and means for other active operations, including offensives.” Russia admits that it must relinquish the territories it held on the western bank of the Dnieper due to the risk that its troops will be isolated by the Ukrainian advance.
Both the British intelligence services and the Institute for the Study of War, one of the most cited analysis centers on the conflict in Ukraine, had warned in recent days that a Russian withdrawal was likely and that Surovikin’s forces were already focusing on reinforcing defenses in the interior of the province and on the Black Sea coast to ensure security of supply for its units from the Crimean peninsula.
The military authorities imposed by the Kremlin in the area announced the eviction of the city in October, but thousands of Ukrainians who had not fled since the start of the Russian offensive have decided to stay in their homes.
“The Ukrainian strategy in Kherson has been based on interrupting its supply chain and it is working because on the western shore of the Dnieper they have obvious resource limitations,” Mark Savchuk, a renowned Ukrainian analyst, explains to EL PAÍS. The fire of the kyiv forces with the Himars precision artillery has punished since the summer the logistics centers of the Russian army and also its arsenals. The Russian troops also had to face two fronts on Kherson, from the south and from the north.
If confirmed, Russia would avoid with this decision a siege on the city of Kherson that was expected to be terrible. Despite the fact that in recent weeks the messages from the Russian authorities announcing that they were withdrawing their positions in the municipality had been repeated, both Zelensky and his intelligence chief from the Ministry of Defense, General Kirilo Budanov, had reiterated that it was a trap to surprise the Ukrainian battalions, just 12 kilometers from the city.
Budanov even contemplated that the siege of Kherson would be as bloody as that of Mariupol. This city in the province of Donetsk, on the coast of the Sea of Azov, was devastated during the spring after two months of siege. Russia controls Mariupol and is reinforcing its defenses against the possibility that the Ukrainian advance could take the entire Kherson province and enter Zaporizhia, according to the British Ministry of Defense.
Evacuation of the area
“Everyone who wanted to has left the area,” General Surovikin told the Russian high command after assuring that “about 115,000 people” have left the territory. The commander, until now a general of the Russian Airborne Forces and a supporter of bombing against infrastructure, has also justified the withdrawal with the idea that the northwest area of the Dnieper River could be flooded.
Surovikin has admitted that the Ukrainian pressure is constant. Although his data ensures that 80% of Ukrainian missiles are shot down, “up to 20% of them reach their targets”, he has pointed out. In addition, he has defended the withdrawal despite assuring that the Ukrainian losses are seven or eight times greater.
Unlike Moscow’s previous military setbacks, which ended up costing General Alexander Lapin his job this week, Kherson’s pullout has been blessed by two of the most rabid figures in the Kremlin circle: businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the mercenary group Wagner, and Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. “Surovikin has saved 1,000 soldiers who were in a royal encirclement,” the leader of the Caucasus region wrote on Telegram. “There is no reason to talk about surrender (…). Surovikin protects the soldier and takes a more advantageous strategic position, ”added Kadyrov, who believes that he has acted“ like a true general, without fear of criticism ”. For his part, Prigozhin has praised Surovikin because he “doesn’t fear responsibility.” “It is important not to agonize, not to fight with paranoia, but to draw conclusions and correct mistakes,” he added.
Talks
The withdrawal from Jersón and the entrenchment on the other side of the river would mean giving way to a new stage in the war. “We are still open to negotiations. We never abandon them, we are ready to carry them out, but, of course, taking into account the realities that are brewing at the moment,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zajárova said on Wednesday. A day before, the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, showed his willingness to dialogue with Russia, but with several red lines; among them, that “the territorial integrity of Ukraine” be restored.
The deputy head of the Russian authorities in Kherson dies
The announcement of the Russian withdrawal from the western area of Kherson coincided on Wednesday with the death in a traffic accident of the deputy head of the Russian military administration imposed in the region by the Kremlin. Kirill Stremousov had been the visible face of the evacuation announcements in recent weeks and assured that Kherson would never be surrendered.
A Ukrainian politician before the war, Stremousov, 45, had been declared a traitor by kyiv in March. As revealed on Wednesday by the independent newspaper jellyfishthe Kremlin had ordered its media to give him and other public figures less of a voice for their criticism of the conduct of the offensive.
In October, the senior official described the Russian commanders as “incompetent” and came to charge against the Russian Defense Minister himself, Sergei Shoigú. “Many say that the defense minister, who has allowed this state of affairs to come to a head, could, as an officer, shoot himself. But, you know, the official word is an incomprehensible word for many, ”said Stremousov on his social media. In the last intervention published on Telegram the morning of his death, he stated that the Ukrainian forces “tried to cross the lines, but were stopped”. “To the collective Biden its magic runs out and soon the ucronazis they will be left without funding because of the complete fiasco of the Democrats in the US elections”, predicted Stremousov. In the videos he posted he never wore a seat belt in the car.
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