Rishi Sunak assumes defeat and calls for avoiding a “supermajority” for the Labour Party

The sense of historic debacle that is spreading among British conservatives has led to the reproaches and accusations even before citizens go to the polls next Thursday. Always under the protection of anonymity, of course, but there are already several MPs who define the last six weeks as “the worst campaign” of their lives, as one of them admitted to the newspaper. The Guardianand accuse Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of not having listened to his advisers.

Isaac Levido, the Australian electoral guru who accompanied Boris Johnson to his electoral victory in 2019, tried to convince Sunak’s team to avoid two mistakes. The first, calling early elections in July – he could have waited until almost the end of the year – when the good economic data, such as the improvement in inflation or GDP, were just beginning to emerge. The second, forgetting about those voters who one day abandoned the Labour Party and voted for the Tories for Brexit. Disillusioned, most have now returned home. Levido suggested the prime minister’s campaign should concentrate on attacking the real threat: populist Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Only at the end of a disastrous few weeks have the Conservatives decided to put aside their fear of offending those voters and start attacking Farage hard for his racism, xenophobia and homophobia. Too late, in any case. The average of polls gives Reform UK 16%, which could lead to a serious erosion in the number of seats. Tories. That same average has kept the Labour Party’s lead of 20 percentage points over the Conservatives until the end of the campaign, with the latter obtaining between 19% and 20% of the votes.

‘Mr. Sleepyhead’ and the ‘supermajority’

Sunak’s desperation, who could go down in history as the candidate who caused the electoral collapse of the Conservative Party, has led him to enter into notable contradictions every time he changed his strategy. Just a week ago, when a BBC journalist asked him if he saw any virtue in his rival, Keir Starmer, he praised his desire to reconcile his family life. The Labour candidate has always boasted of disconnecting from work, every Friday from six in the evening, to dedicate time to his family. He and his wife have two children aged 16 and 13.

In recent hours, the slogan repeated by the conservatives – including Sunak himself – is to call Starmer Sir Sleepy (Mr. Sleepyhead) and reproach him for his desire to keep a reasonable working schedule. To the point of linking his habits with national security. “Defending the United Kingdom is a job that requires a little more time than a daytime workday,” wrote the still British Minister of Defense, Grant Shapps, on X (formerly Twitter).

“It’s ridiculous and laughable. It just shows that the Conservatives have nothing positive to add to this campaign,” Starmer replied to the Times Radio presenter, who was ironically pleased to be able to interview him before he went to bed at six in the evening.

But the real sign that Sunak is now only looking for ways to soften the defeat is found in his constant appeal to voters these days to avoid a Labour “supermajority” that would result in a government without controls and a weakened opposition. Sociologist John Curtice, one of the most listened to voices in the United Kingdom when it comes to electoral analysis, has been blunt: “The chances of lightning striking the same place twice are greater than those of Sunak winning this election,” he said ironically. The Conservative candidate is now only looking for the electoral engineering necessary to avoid collapse.

“If just 130,000 people change their minds and support us, we can stop Starmer from getting that supermajority. Think about it. You have the power to prevent a Labour government that would be unchecked,” the Prime Minister said on Tuesday in Oxfordshire, at one of the electoral events he has held in the final stretch of his campaign before Thursday. Sunak was directly addressing voters who are considering switching their support to Starmer – the most moderate of the Conservative electorate – or those who have been seduced by Farage’s populist siren song. In many of the 650 constituencies, the seat will depend on a difference of just a few hundred votes.

The Labour candidate must fight his own two ghosts in the final days of the campaign. He must convince those who take the victory of the left for granted that “if they want change, they must vote for change” and, therefore, they cannot stay at home. And, above all, he must try to reduce the fear inoculated by the conservative campaign regarding a possible government with a lot of power and an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

“The larger the majority, the better it will be for the country,” Starmer explained to the newspaper. The Timesin a generous interview, carried on the front page, which suggested that the main British newspaper, as has already happened with the Financial Timeswelcomes a change of cycle in the United Kingdom after 14 years of Conservative governments. “With this majority, we can begin to roll up our sleeves and work for the change we need,” said the Labour candidate, aware that his victory is more an expression of citizens’ weariness with the Tories that is a sign of hope for the new political cycle that is approaching.

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