Although quantum computers will probably never replace traditional computers, which remain the most suitable for everyday use, there are several specific fields in which their potential could be fully exploited: from molecular simulation (with derivations in the medical and scientific fields) and the optimization of problems in the fields of logistics, finance and energy, to the aforementioned cryptography and artificial intelligence (which can take advantage of the speed of these computer systems).
But when will quantum computers arrive?
Considering how disappointing some of the technologies in which enormous hopes have been placed in recent years (from the blockchain to virtual reality and beyond), it is normal to be skeptical about the advance of a potentially revolutionary technology, but which seems to be perennially far away.
However, according to the GP Bullhound report there are numerous signs that the decisive moment may be near. In fact, both Atom Computing and IBM presented experimental quantum computers with more than 1,000 qubits in 2023, a clear leap forward compared to 433 qubits which represented the maximum reached until 2022 (still in 2016 they had not exceeded 5 qubits). By 2025, analysts predict quantum computers could begin to generate value.
At this point it is worth giving a warning: consulting firms’ estimates should always be taken with caution and, in the past, they have often magnified the potential of technologies that, on the contrary, have disappointed expectations. That said, the quantum technology market, currently worth around $1 billion, is expected to grow to $20 billion by 2030, with a potential impact on the global economy of $2 trillion by 2035.
A market that is already growing
IBM, Google, Q-Ctrl, Atom Computing and PsiQuantum are some of the names of companies and startups that are repeated the most when talking about quantum technologies, which shows that the market is consolidating. According to GP Bullhound, this is also an important sign: the number of startups founded each year in the sector has fallen from 57 in 2018 (the highest ever) to just 12 last year, a figure that could be interpreted negatively, but instead appears to be linked mainly to the shortage of experts available in the sector. labor market. In short, there is more demand than supply of talent in the world of quantum technologies. Similar signals also come from investments in the sector, which skyrocketed in 2021-2022 (during the financial euphoria of the covid period), when they reached $2.3 billion in each of the two years. In comparison, 2023 was a rather disappointing year as investments stopped at $1.7 billion.
In fact, the startups The quantum sector saw its global investment share increase from 0.51% in 2022 to 0.6% last year. Simply put, money has decreased overall, but the quantum technology sector is gaining a growing (although still very small) share.
Technological advances, massive financing (even from the public treasury), increasingly clear applications and consolidation of the players in the sector: these are the four elements that, according to the report, demonstrate that quantum technologies are about to begin the long-awaited technological and scientific revolution.
As the hype around artificial intelligence reaches its peak (and perhaps prepares to cool down), analysts and investors around the world are already on the hunt for the “next big revolution.”
Article originally published in WIRED Italy. Adapted by Andrea Baranenko.
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