The table above shows the eight round of 16 matches and the quarterfinal, semifinal and final matches. RTVE will broadcast all the matches of Spain, four round of 16 matches, two quarterfinals, the two semifinals and the final. All the matches can be seen on the Gol Mundial channel. Next, the predictions to go to the quarterfinals and to win the tournament.
Our round of 16 prediction
At EL PAÍS we are making World Cup forecasts from day one, using a simple statistical model that simulates the tournament thousands of times every day. These are his predictions for each match.
Netherlands Y USA They will premiere the round of 16 on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. The Dutch are clear favorites for our model and should win seven times out of 10. It is more or less the same as the polls say, where the victory of the Netherlands has a probability of 66%.
After a rocky start, Argentina managed to be first in the group and will cross paths with Australia, a priori, a weak opponent. Our model believes that Lionel Messi’s team should win 85% of the time and be in the quarterfinals. As we explain below, the albiceleste is the second team with the most chances of ending up winning the trophy, according to our model.
Francethe current champion, will face Poland Sunday at 4:00 p.m. Although they lost their last meeting against Tunisia, the French will be in the next round three out of four times. In the bets they see it even more clearly and raise their options to 85% and even 88%.
Another game with a clear favorite is the duel between England Y Senegal. The English finished the group stage by beating Wales, and they are our model’s fifth favorite to win the World Cup.
The one on Monday is expected to be the most balanced tie of the eight round of 16 rounds. Japanwho comes first in the group after beating Germany and Spain, faces Croatia. And what does our model say? That it is an even match, with a certain advantage for the Europeans, but whose result is not very different from that of a tossed coin.
The selection of Brazil is also a clear favorite in her match against South Korea, with an 84% chance of prevailing and reaching the quarterfinals. Despite their loss to Cameroon in their final group game, the Brazilians are still, according to our model, the team with the best chance of winning the trophy, with a choice of four.
Spain the eighth is played against Morocco, starting as a favourite, but without being as clear as Brazil or France: it should pass the crossing 76% of the time. The bets see it in a similar way, with 75% options for the selection of Luis Enrique.
In the duel between Portugal Y Swiss, the former are a weak favourite, with a 65% chance of winning. Our model prefers the Portuguese because of the market value of their players, which is higher than that of the Swiss team.
Who will win the World Cup?
Our model also allows trying to anticipate the final winner of the trophy. To do this, we simulate the remainder of the tournament each day thousands of times, so that we can attribute probabilities. The table shows the options for each team to win the World Cup.
PROBABILITY OF REACHING EACH STAGE AND WINNING THE WORLD CUP
If you want to know more about the model, or save it to favorites to check its predictions every day, you have it here: the EL PAÍS World Cup model.
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