Poland | Russia and Belarus threaten Poland – Wagner is just a new element in the conflict, says the researcher

Russia and Belarus are increasingly threatening Poland, which is one of Ukraine’s steadfast supporters.

New trouble caused on Tuesday two Belarusian helicopters. According to Poland, they violated its airspace in the Białowieża region during a military exercise in Belarus. According to the Polish Ministry of Defense, the helicopters flew so low that they were not visible on radar.

The Polish Ministry of Defense announced that it would strengthen its forces in the border area due to the “increased hybrid influence” of Russia and Belarus.

Belarus the western neighbors Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have declared states of emergency, built border fences and turned tens of thousands of people away from the border since 2021.

At that time, the autocrat of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced that he “will no longer stop” migrants from entering the EU. That’s when Belarus’ hybrid attack began, according to the neighboring countries.

Now behind the fence, somewhere in Belarus are also the remnants of Wagner’s mercenary army, according to Polish estimates 3,000-5,000 men, the majority of whom have fought in the Russian forces against Ukraine.

The Wagnerians would really like a “trip to Warsaw and Rzeszów” right now. Did they know when they were fighting in Bahmut that the technology went? [Ukrainaan] Through Rzeszów, Lukashenko said as he spoke Vladimir Putin with to the Russian press Petersburg at the end of July.

However, Lukashenko promised to arrest the Wagnerites in Belarus.

On Tuesday, Lukashenko reminded about it again.

According to him, the Poles should “pray” that Belarus keeps the Wagnerians on their side.

“They should not blame me, but say thank you,” Lukashenko said, according to Belarus’ state news agency Belta.

Investigator Anna Dyner A familiar echo can be heard in Lukashenko’s speech from the Polish Foreign Policy Institute.

“These words cannot be ignored, especially not because Lukashenko announced a similar message before the border crisis began,” researcher Dyner commented to HS by e-mail.

Dyner, which specializes in Belarus and Russia, recently published analysis about the threats that the arrival of the Wagnerites to Belarus poses especially to Poland and Lithuania.

“It’s about an attempt to influence Polish public opinion and the authorities so that Poland would change its policy towards Belarus, Russia and Ukraine,” Dyner assesses.

Poland is one of the staunchest supporters and advocates of Ukraine, as well as the strictest critics of Russia and Belarus in the EU and NATO. It also plays a key role as a transit country for aid transport.

Speeches the “Warsaw trips” that the Wagnerites are looking forward to have been supplemented by President Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Russian Security Council the other week.

Putin accused Poland of expansionist ambitions and assured Russia’s readiness to defend Belarus.

“It is well known that they dream of the lands of Belarus,” Putin said, according to Russian state news agency Tassi.

Putin promised to react to every attack against Belarus “with all available means”.

Putin said that Poland is also eyeing Ukrainian territories.

In the western parts of Ukraine and Belarus, in the former territories of Poland, there is a Polish-speaking population.

Polish blaming and sowing suspicion in the region with the help of history has been a red thread throughout the current conflict, says an Eastern European researcher Jussi Jalonen.

Jalonen has studied and been a visiting researcher at the University of Warsaw. Nowadays he is a docent at the University of Oulu.

Already in his essay in the summer of 2021 before the major attack on Ukraine, President Putin mentioned Poland many times. According to the essay, it is Poland that has turned Ukraine away from the state unity with Russia and Belarus and has broken the triple alliance, says Jalonen.

Belarus, on the other hand, enacted a new history law directed against the Polish minority in July. According to it, charges can also be brought against the deceased. Living relatives can be called as witnesses.

The law primarily concerns the events of the Second World War.

Belarus accuses the Poles of “genocide against the Belarusian nation”. It equates the resistance fighters of the Polish Home Army with the Nazi German army, even though they are known for fighting specifically against Nazi Germany during the Warsaw Uprising.

of the Wagnerians according to satellite images, the columns started arriving in Belarus in mid-July.

The main accommodation is reportedly in the southeast of Minsk in the village of Shchel, in a former military base in the middle of Belarus. According to Anna Dyner, some of the Wagnerians also practice in the Brest area near the Polish border.

According to the official announcement of Belarus, the Wagnerites work as army trainers. However, Dyner sees as a threat the Wagnerians’ infiltration into the country with a Belarusian passport or otherwise illegally, as well as intelligence missions and sabotage attacks in Polish territory.

In addition, the Wagnerians could be harnessed for various provocations, from transporting migrants to the border and sabotaging the fence to attacks against border guards.

This one during the year, Poland has blocked 16,000 immigration attempts.

“Now the situation is even more dangerous,” the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki commented on the arrival of the Wagner soldiers in Belarus, a Polish news agency Popeaccording to

According to the Prime Minister, more than a hundred Wagnerians have moved near Hrodna towards the Suwałki Corridor, i.e. the border between Poland and Lithuania, which is almost a hundred kilometers long, and which separates Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad from each other. According to the Haju Telegram channel, which follows the movements of soldiers in the territory of Belarus, there is no evidence of this.

“The Prime Minister seeks help from the Wagnerites in his election campaign”, opposition leader Donald Tusk wrote the message service Xin , formerly Twitter.

Lithuanian and Latvian authorities, on the other hand, have rather restrained threatening images. Both countries’ defense ministries have stated that Wagner does not pose a military threat. The country’s broadcasting companies have reported on the matter LSM and LRT.

Threat is real anyway, says the assistant professor Michał Piekarski from the Security Policy Unit of the Institute of International Policy at the University of Wrocław. He specializes in hybrid threats.

Although the Wagnerians do not pose a military threat, Piekarski thinks about other situations: What if someone starts shooting at the border? Or if a military vehicle is hijacked?

According to Piekarski, there are no real differences of opinion between the opposition and the government regarding the threat.

“First of all, it’s an election year in Poland. Confrontation can be created from anywhere,” says Piekarski.

According to Piekarski, Poland is considering declaring Wagner’s group a terrorist organization. In that case, if necessary, anti-terrorist measures could be launched against it. NATO allies would also have a clear reason for providing aid.

Article Five of NATO, which obliges allies to help, has only been implemented once, and that time it was because of a terrorist attack, Piekarski reminds.

After the terrorist attack on the twin towers in New York in 2001, NATO countries supported the United States in military operations in Afghanistan, where there were terrorist camps.

Gravel sounds represented in Poland by the small Confederation party, which criticizes Poland’s strong support for Ukraine. Politico according to a survey published by

According to Piekarski, the current situation is not perceived to be so alarming in Poland that the Wagnerites would arise in discussions among neighbors, relatives and acquaintances in the same way as the great Russian attack on Ukraine.

“Nothing has happened. For Wagner, threats are one new element in a long-standing conflict,” says Piekarski.

In her analysis, Anna Dyner of the Polish Foreign Policy Institute estimates that Poland should be prepared for provocations later in the fall, during the military exercise between Russia and Belarus in September and later during the Polish parliamentary elections.