The reasons for the dwindling wheat stocks in the world are manifold. In addition to droughts and climate change, the Ukraine war is exacerbating the situation.
Kassel – Global grain yields have declined. According to analyzes by the International Grains Council (IGC), the current 2022/23 season yields around 40 million tons less grain worldwide than in the previous season. The IGC speaks of a total grain production of 2251 million tons, as the online portal agrarheute summarizes.
Sara Menker, managing director of the agricultural analysis company Gro Intelligence, cites global droughts as the reason for the decline in the grain harvest. But also that Ukraine conflict contribute to the low stocks, which currently mainly affect wheat. In front of the UN security service, Menker describes the current situation and speaks of a precarious situation, because the supplies only last for about ten weeks.
Wheat stocks are becoming scarce: an expert on the reasons for grain shortages
According to estimates by official government agencies in different countries, the current wheat supply is one-third of annual needs, Business Insider reports. According to analyzes by Gro Intelligence, the stock seems to cover only 20 percent, according to Menker. “We currently only have stocks for 10 weeks of global consumption. Conditions are worse today than they were in 2007 and 2008,” she told the UN Security Council.
In their estimation, this is due to global droughts and climate change. The drop in production due to a heat wave is particularly badly affected by the drop in production in India and even leads to an export stop for wheat. About 111.3 million tons of grain were expected, current estimates should be 6.3 million tons less, as agrarheute reports. The resulting decline in export grain is even more devastating, because instead of 9.5 million tons, only about 4.9 million tons are to be exported. “It is important to emphasize that global grain stockpiles are at an all-time low,” Menker said.
Russia to blame for global wheat shortage
In addition, access to fertilizers is “severely restricted”. According to the food security expert, the war in Ukraine is not to blame for the shortage of wheat. However, this reinforces the current circumstances. Ukraine and Russia together provide about a third of world grain exports, Business Insider reports. Because of the war, a large proportion of these exports are lost because ports and other export routes are blocked.
There are also allegations against Russia that the food would be used as a weapon of war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the UN Security Council: “The Russian government seems to believe that holding back food will help it achieve what the invasion has so far failed to do – break the spirit of the Ukrainian people. “ (Fee Halberstadt)
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