Morena’s career in Mexico City reaches decisive moments with Omar García Harfuch and Clara Brugada as leaders. The former Secretary of Security in Claudia Sheinbaum’s Government has a 12% advantage in effective preferences over the former mayor of Iztapalapa, according to a survey by Enkoll for EL PAÍS and W Radio. The distance between both candidates is reduced to 10% among respondents who identify with Morena. The ruling party plans to announce the winners of the internal race next Monday. It will also define how it will comply with the parity criteria approved this week by the National Electoral Institute (INE), the other key to determining who will make it to the ballot in the 2024 elections.
García Harfuch has 43% of effective preferences among the general population, compared to 31% for Brugada, according to Enkoll. Further down is Hugo López-Gatell, who was Undersecretary of Health in the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, with 17%. Mariana Boy, former candidate for the Head of Government for the Green Party in 2018, has 6%. Deputy Miguel Torruco, the last candidate to join the internal race, has 3%. When asked who respondents prefer as Morena’s candidate in the capital, 13% answered none and 4% said they are undecided. Effective preferences do not take into account those who do not opt for any of the candidates or those who do not know who to vote for.
The percentages change slightly when voters are asked who support Morena. García Harfuch has 44% of the effective preferences, but Brugada rises to 34%. They are the only contenders that improve their results. López-Gatell drops to 16%, Boy remains at 4% and Torruco, at 2%, according to the polling house.
López-Gatell, leading Mexico’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, is the best-known candidate: 73% of those surveyed know him or have heard of him. Harfuch is close in second place, with 70% awareness. Brugada is known by 62% of the survey participants. Torruco (28%) and Boy (20%) are further behind, according to Enkoll.
López-Gatell is also the candidate who arouses the highest percentage of negative opinions: 22% have a bad image of him. On the other hand, 19% value it positively and 29% say that they have a fair opinion. García Harfuch has an acceptance of 34%, 22% answered that it is fair and 9% disapprove. Brugada also has a favorable balance among the population: 23% have a good image; 22%, regular, and 11% value it negatively in the measurement. Torruco and Boy appear lower as they are less known profiles.
Enkoll also measured attributes, with the parameters that Morena usually uses in surveys to define its candidates. The most disputed criterion is closeness to people. 33% opt for Harfuch and 30.8% consider Brugada to be closer. Another disputed parameter is whether those surveyed believe that the candidates fulfill what they promise: 27.8% bet on the former Chief of Police and 24% on the former mayor.
Harfuch stands out in terms of knowledge of the city (46.7%), the attribute in which he scores best. Brugada has 31.6% and López-Gatell is close with 30.2%. It is the only criterion in which the doctor exceeds the barrier of 30 percentage points. Harfuch also leads when voters are asked if he would be a good candidate: Nearly 45% said yes. Brugada has 31.6% favorable opinions. López-Gatell falls to 18.5%, while Boy and Torruco do not exceed 10% in that area.
This part of the survey also asks whether or not participants would vote for the candidates. 48.2% said they would be willing to vote for García Harfuch, 32.6% would do so for Brugada and 24.4% for López-Gatell. The answers are also presented about who the respondents prefer as Morena’s candidate, but in this case the raw preferences (which do consider the undecided and those who answered none). 35.5% prefer García Harfuch, 25% Brugada and 13.6% López-Gatell.
Morena sources anticipate a very similar weighting method to that used in the survey for the presidential race, in which the most important question is who people prefer, leaving the measurement of attributes in the background. The national leader Mario Delgado has asked, however, not to be anxious and wait for the presentation of results on Monday.
The INE approved this week that at least five of the nine candidacies for state governments of all parties must be for women. The agreement to promote the participation of female candidates can still be challenged by political forces before the Electoral Court, but it is anticipated that the parity criteria will be decisive in the final decision of who to nominate, even regardless of the results of the surveys.
As the rules stand at this moment, each party must explain to the electoral authorities how it will comply with the gender guidelines, being prohibited from placing exclusively women in entities where they are not very competitive. They were asked to consider that if in the 2018 elections they nominated a man for governor, they should seek to promote a woman, although this rule does not apply the other way around: a man will not necessarily be the candidate if in the previous votes the candidate was a woman. . Morena, by presenting the results of the survey a week before the formal start of the pre-campaigns in the capital, will be the first party to announce how it will apply these criteria. It is also scheduled to do so on Monday.
Enkoll’s survey also asks which party the population most identifies with, regardless of whether they would vote for it or not in next year’s elections. Morena has 43% of the preferences and its ally, the Green Party, just 1%. The Labor Party does not score, at least in this exercise. The National Action Party (PAN) is the second party with the highest affinity, 22%. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has 7% in this area. Citizen Movement has 3% and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), 1%. The opposition Frente Amplio por México – of the PAN, the PRI and the PRD – would have around 30% of people who identify with it, if it manages to unite the bases of its followers, although in this test each formation was measured by separate.
Finally, the survey measured the approval of three Morena political actors. Claudia Sheinbaum is approved by two out of every three residents of the capital and disapproved by 31%, while 2% do not know or did not answer. López Obrador has similar figures, with 65% approving and 33% disapproving in the capital, also with 2% not speaking out. Martí Batres, the interim head of government, has much greater opposition: 42% do not approve of his work and 40% do. 18% did not know what to answer.
The measurement was made from 805 interviews with adults in housing, between October 19 and 23. 52% of the participants are women and 48% are men. Enkoll points out that the sample is representative for Mexico City, based on a probabilistic selection at different stages. The margin of error is 3.5%.
Subscribe here to the EL PAÍS México newsletter and receive all the key information on current events in this country
#Omar #García #Harfuch #leads #Clara #Brugada #final #stretch #Morenas #race #Mexico #City