100 days after the president Daniel Noboa assumed the presidency of Ecuadorthe balance of his management gains positive weight due to the fight against insecurity, although the Questioning and criticism are also part of the government evaluation.
The youngest president (36 years old) that this South American country with 17.7 million inhabitants has had, exercises a transitional government for 18 months and will govern until May 2025. Noboa won the presidency with 52 percent of the vote, after his predecessor, Guillermo Lassodue to the lack of governance, decreed the death crusade that dissolved the National Assembly and called for early elections.
Backed by an incipient political party, without greater visibility and public history, with little eloquence and with the greatest identification of being the son of the banana and industrial magnate, Alvaro Noboa, The current president assumed power on November 23, promising to reduce violence and make “progress” a custom in the country.
And they are, without a doubt, his decisions to confront the serious crisis of violence, recorded at the beginning of the year and which placed the country as the most violent in the region with a rate of 40 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, which catapulted its approval to 81 percent, with 76 percent credibility, according to the Cedatos firm.
Noboa is governing “as a statesman,” the former president, Osvaldo Hurtado, publicly acknowledged. To that voice are added many analyzes that qualify his decisions as correct, mainly in his fight against drug violence.
“The novelty that Daniel Noboa has meant, the expectation that he has generated and the prioritization of the fight against insecurity, have been very well received by the population that now supports him,” considers the analyst, Juan Rivadeneira. He highlighted as a “brave act” the declaration of “internal armed conflict” with which on January 9, he militarized the prisons and cities taken over by organized crime groups.
Political consultant Tatiana Larrea analyzes for EL TIEMPO that Noboa “runs a strategically efficient campaign that allows him to position himself as the anti-trouble” and as president he maintains quite the style he had as a candidate: he does not confront, he does not expose himself too much, he does not fall into disputes, he does not place himself in any pole and It even reaches agreements like the Legislative one in which they are “united” opposing forces such as Correismo and the Christian Social Party.
What do the surveys say?
In Larrea's opinion, in his first months, Noboa has delivered important blows regarding the most urgent and serious problem: the violence imposed by organized crime and the great task that awaits him is to recover the country's economy.
Álvaro Marchante, manager of the polling firm Comunicaliza, identifies two moments in the rise in popularity: the rise to power in which he was from 54 to 70 percent and the decree of the state of internal war, which took it to 80 percent.
To date, Ecuador lives under a state of emergency and curfew, but the results are already evident. Violent deaths have dropped to less than 9 with a percentage reduction of 41 percent, according to data from the National Police. He has achieved this through agreements and cooperation with the United States, a country that is seen as the main ally of his administration.
Precisely the appetizing support with resources, training, training and technology offered by the Biden government caused Noboa's biggest mistake when he announced the delivery of Russian weapons to the United States as scrap metal, which would be triangulated to Ukraine. Russia reacted with harsh measures on exports of Ecuadorian products such as flowers and bananas, affecting $189 million. The government rectification eased tensions.
Merchante also highlights that the entire institutional framework of the State presents positive figures: the Armed Forces with approval of 95 percent, the Police with 85, the President in ranks of 80, the government at 76 and the Assembly, which had a scarce 6 percent acceptance when reaching the cross death, ranks with 72 percent.
Those surveyed have said more, they like an Assembly that works with the Executive and that is the other achievement: governability. From his campaign, the president perceived in that Ecuador fed up with confrontations that he wanted serene leadership, action and agreements in the face of very critical problems. And he favored his government with the agreement not recognized in the National Assembly – and which until now has worked – with the first legislative force, the Citizen Revolution and the Christian Social Party, at the other ideological extreme.
This alliance has allowed Noboa to emerge triumphant in the Assembly with the approval of five laws, at a rate of one every 20 days. The most controversial is the increase of 3 percentage points, from 12 to 15, in the Value Added Tax (VAT) and the contribution of the companies with the highest profits in 2023, to finance the “internal war” against drug violence.
The country is “in its worst economic moment,” the president stated shortly after his inauguration. And socially it is not more promising, with the wave of violence and a heartbreaking migration that involved 47 daily deportations in 2023, only from Honduras, according to the Undersecretary of Migration.
Noboa runs a strategically efficient campaign that allows it to position itself as the anti-trouble
Faced with questions about the increase in VAT, he called on citizens to “work hard and you will see how it is enough for the main course and dessert.” The irony provoked rejection from social sectors that describe the president as the “rich heir” far removed from the country's situation.
The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie) pointed out that the statements demonstrate “their total ignorance of the reality of the country and are an insult to the people.” In its publication, the organization replied that Ecuador's minimum wage, of $460, is not enough to cover the basic basket of $790. But their protest remained on social networks and in communications. Noboa has also managed to remove from his environment the threats of indigenous uprisings and protests that destabilized other governments.
Another setback is the regime's assertion that, in 60 days, having generated more than 50,000 jobs for young people between 18 and 29 years old, but the figure contradicts those of Social Security, which account for a drop of more than 100,000 jobs in the same period.
Noboa's consolidation could take place on April 21 with the results of a popular consultation and referendum that he offered as a candidate and promoted from the presidential chair, whose important issues refer to security. He proposes the intervention of the Armed Forces when there are risk situations for national security; the police use of weapons seized from criminal groups, the extradition of Ecuadorians required by other countries and the increase in penalties for certain crimes.
The proposal for hourly labor contracts and international arbitration on commercial issues are the weak points. “In the Popular Consultation, Noboa dusts off the fixed-term and hourly employment contracts that were in force in the country until a few years ago, with the addition that would constitutionalize them to legalize labor overexploitation,” analyst Francisco told EL TIEMPO. Scandon.
At this point, he is already a presidential candidate. He announced that he will run in the 2025 elections “because he still has a lot to do.” He will have to entrust power to his vice president, Verónica Abad, with whom disagreements arose since the campaign, and caused Noboa to give her functions in Israel, to contribute to the search for peace.
Until that happens, there will be popular consultation. For sociologist Fernando Carrión, the president arrives in “a privileged situation” to that election day that will decide everything from extradition, to hourly work, to authorizing the support of the Armed Forces to the Police without the need for a state of exception.
What's coming?
A strong El Niño phenomenon, a possible new dry season that could repeat the electricity cuts inherited by the previous government and the economic impact that will be felt due to the increase in VAT that will take effect from April 1, among others.
Economic sectors claim that there is no decision to cut the size of the State, while oil production is declining and the arrival of foreign investment is still a promise.
In this scenario, the government will attempt social security reforms that contemplate raising the retirement age, with a legislative alliance of which there is no guarantee that it will last, even more so in the upcoming electoral period. But with Noboa everything has been surprising and his permanence in the Carondelet Palace, for a new presidential term, does not seem at all elusive.
ANA LUCÍA ROMAN
FOR THE TIME
QUITO
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