Record temperatures, historic emissions… This is the planet’s calling card just before COP28 begins. The 1.5ºC limit set at the Paris climate summit in 2015 is about to be erased. “From the beginning of this year until October, 86 days have been recorded with temperatures greater than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels,” warns the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). However, the alert is even greater: the projection is to reach 3ºC of global warming.
“Countries have to go further on current decarbonization promises,” says UNEP. “Other records must be established, such as emissions reduction, climate financing or green and fair transition,” denounces Inger Anderser, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme.
To date, all historical milestones reached are negative. The UNEP report presented this Monday certifies that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased again, specifically by 1.2% compared to 2021, reaching 57.4 gigatonnes.
This fact coincides with the review of the decarbonization plans of the countries that will be reviewed at the Dubai summit that begins on November 30 and where the objectives for 2035 will be discussed. «If mitigation efforts continue at levels current conditions, warming will be limited to 3ºC of warming with respect to pre-industrial levels,” says the new UNEP report. A revision that takes the 2022 data upwards.
More cuts
Last week, the United Nations noted the first reviews of the decarbonization plans of the almost 200 parties adhering to the Paris Pact. “They are insufficient, more ambition is needed,” the UN investigators denounced.
In percentage terms, the world needs to reduce emissions by 28% between now and 2030 to reach the 2ºC objective set at COP21 and 42% to achieve 1.5ºC. “If the decarbonization plans and commitments are met, it would be possible to achieve this goal,” UNEP details. However, “those promises are not credible,” they add.
Despite not complying with the roadmap set out with Paris, “progress has been made,” highlights the United Nations Environment Program. GHG emissions projections at COP21 pointed to a growth of 16% by the end of the decade and with the measures implemented in recent years, the expansion is only 3%.
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